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Simplifying Bayesian Inference: The General Case

Author

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  • Krauss, Stefan

    (MPI for Human Development)

  • Martignon, Laura

    (Max Planck Institute for Human Development)

  • Hoffrage, Ulrich

    (Sonderforschungsbereich 504)

Abstract

We present empirical evidence that human reasoning follows the rules of probability theory, if information is presented in änatural formats¶. Human reasoning has often been evaluated in terms of humansÁ ability to deal with probabilities. Yet, in nature we do not observe probabilities, we rather count samples and their subsets. Our concept of Markov frequencies generalizes Gigerenzer & Hoffrageãs änatural frequencies, which are known to foster insight in Bayesian situations with one cue. Markov Frequencies allow to visualize Bayesian inference problems even with an arbitrary number of cues.

Suggested Citation

  • Krauss, Stefan & Martignon, Laura & Hoffrage, Ulrich, 1999. "Simplifying Bayesian Inference: The General Case," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 99-23, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    • Handle: RePEc:xrs:sfbmaa:99-23
    Note: Financial Support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 504, at the University of Mannheim, is gratefully acknowledged.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bjorn Meder & Jonathan D. Nelson, 2012. "Information search with situation-specific reward functions," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 7(2), pages 119-148, March.
    2. Laura Martignon & Ulrich Hoffrage, 2002. "Fast, frugal, and fit: Simple heuristics for paired comparison," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 29-71, February.
    3. Michelle McDowell & Mirta Galesic & Gerd Gigerenzer, 2018. "Natural Frequencies Do Foster Public Understanding of Medical Tests: Comment on Pighin, Gonzalez, Savadori, and Girotto (2016)," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 38(3), pages 390-399, April.
    4. repec:cup:judgdm:v:7:y:2012:i:2:p:119-148 is not listed on IDEAS

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