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Stimmensplitting und Koalitionswahl

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  • Gschwend, Thomas

    (Sonderforschungsbereich 504)

  • Pappi, Franz Urban

    (Sonderforschungsbereich 504)

Abstract

In this paper we are interested in explaining strategic ticket-splitting in the German mixed-electoral system across time. We propose that mainly two factors determine the level of strategic ticket-splitting across electoral districts and across time. The closer the district race is expected or the clearer the identifiability of viable coalitions are in the public the more strategic ticket splitting is expected. We content analyze political magazines (DER SPIEGEL) in order to get measures about the degree of pre-election identifiability of coalitions and merge it to a data set consisting of district-level election returns (1953-2002). Our results provide evidence for the two factors we proposed. Finally, counterfactual simulations of our results show that small parties benefit from making it clear to the public which coalition they want to form after the election.

Suggested Citation

  • Gschwend, Thomas & Pappi, Franz Urban, 2003. "Stimmensplitting und Koalitionswahl," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 03-21, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    • Handle: RePEc:xrs:sfbmaa:03-21
    Note: Financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 504, at the University of Mannheim, is gratefully acknowledged.
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    File URL: http://www.sfb504.uni-mannheim.de/publications/dp03-21.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Broscheid, Andreas & Gschwend, Thomas, 2003. "Augäpfel, Murmeltiere und Bayes: Zur Auswertung stochastischer Daten aus Vollerhebungen," MPIfG Working Paper 03/7, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    2. Bawn, Kathleen, 1999. "Voter Responses to Electoral Complexity: Ticket Splitting, Rational Voters and Representation in the Federal Republic of Germany," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 487-505, June.
    3. Jerome Black, 1980. "The probability-choice perspective in voter decision making models," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 35(5), pages 565-574, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pappi, Franz Urban & Gschwend, Thomas, 2003. "Partei- und Koalitionspräferenzen der Wähler bei der Bundestagswahl 1998 und 2002," Papers 03-37, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.

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