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Would it have paid to be in the eurozone?

Author

Listed:
  • Michal Brzoza-Brzezina

    (National Bank of Poland, Warsaw School of Economics)

  • Krzysztof Makarski

    (National Bank of Poland, Warsaw School of Economics)

  • Grzegorz Wesolowski

    (National Bank of Poland, Warsaw School of Economics)

Abstract

Giving up an independent monetary policy and a flexible exchange rate are the key sources of costs and benefits entailed to joining a monetary union. In this paper we analyze their ex post impact on the stability of the Polish economy during the recent financial crisis. To this end we construct a small open economy DSGE model and estimate it for Poland and the euro area. Then we run a counterfactual simulation, assuming Poland's euro area accession in 1q2007. The results are striking - volatilities of GDP and inflation increase substantially. In particular, had Poland adopted the euro, GDP growth would have oscillated between -6% and +9% (-9% to +11% under more extreme assumptions) instead of between 1% and 7%. We conclude that during the analyzed period independent monetary policy and, in particular, the flexible exchange rate played an important stabilizing role for the Polish economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Krzysztof Makarski & Grzegorz Wesolowski, 2013. "Would it have paid to be in the eurozone?," Working Papers 70, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wse:wpaper:70
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    Cited by:

    1. Henryk Bak & Sebastian Maciejewski, 2015. "Asymmetric shocks and international risk sharing in the European Monetary Union and the European Union," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 46(6), pages 523-564.
    2. Michal Andrle & Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Giang Ho, 2014. "A Model-Based Analysis of Spillovers: The Case of Poland and the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 2014/186, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Andrzej Torój & Karolina Konopczak, 2012. "Crisis Resistance Versus Monetary Regime: A Polish–Slovak Counterfactual Exercise," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 4(1), pages 1-22, March.
    4. Bąk Henryk & Maciejewski Sebastian, 2015. "Endogeneity and Specialization in the European Monetary Union," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 46(1), pages 7-40, June.
    5. Grzegorz Wesoƚowski, 2018. "Do long-term interest rates drive GDP and inflation in small open economies? Evidence from Poland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(57), pages 6174-6192, December.
    6. Andrzej Cieślik & Jan Teresiński, 2020. "Comparing business cycles in the Eurozone and in Poland: a Bayesian DSGE approach," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 51(4), pages 317-366.
    7. Aneta Hryckiewicz & Lukasz Kozlowski, 2020. "Should we be afraid of powerful banks? The trade-off between bank power and liquidity buffer," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 51(4), pages 437-466.
    8. Michal Adam & Witold Kozinski & Janusz Zielinski, 2013. "To what extent can central banks influence exchange rates with foreign exchange interventions? The case of Poland," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 73, pages 279-291, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Slawomir Czech, 2015. "The Political Economy Of Staying Outside The Eurozone: Poland And Sweden Compared," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 6(3), pages 23-43, September.
    10. Dreyer, Johannes Kabderian & Schmid, Peter Alfons, 2017. "Growth effects of EU and EZ memberships: Empirical findings from the first 15 years of the Euro," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 45-54.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    optimum currency area; euro-area accession; emerging market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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