IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wrk/wrkesp/41.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How the risk of job automation in the UK has changed over time

Author

Listed:
  • Darke, Matthew James

    (University of Warwick)

Abstract

Developments in Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning technologies have had massive implications for labour automation. This paper builds on the task-based methodology first adopted by Frey and Osborne (2013) to predict how the risk of automation evolved in the UK labour between 2012 and 2017 using data from the UK Skills and Employment Survey. The analysis accounts for technological progress, making use of two sets of experts’ assessments for 70 occupations. The probability of automation is predicted for each individual using a set of self-reported job skills. It finds that the proportion of jobs at high-risk from automation has risen from 10.6% to 23.4%, and that this is largely due to better technology rather than changing job skill requirements. It also identifies sectors experiencing the greatest increase in automation risk between the two periods and, in contrast, those which appear complementary to technology, drawing on occupational case studies as evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Darke, Matthew James, 2022. "How the risk of job automation in the UK has changed over time," Warwick-Monash Economics Student Papers 41, Warwick Monash Economics Student Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:wrk:wrkesp:41
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/wmesp/manage/41_-_matthew_james_darke.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Employment ; Skills Demand ; Technology JEL Classification: J01 ; J21 ; J24 ; J62 ; O33;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wrk:wrkesp:41. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Margaret Nash (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dewaruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.