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Singularity Bifurcation

Author

Listed:
  • Yijun He

    (Washington State University)

  • William A. Barnett

    (University of Kansas)

Abstract

Euler equation models represent an important class of macroeconomic systems. Our ongoing research (He and Barnett (2003)) on the Leeper and Sims (1994) Euler equations macroeconometric model is revealing the existence of singularity-induced bifurcations, when the model’s parameters are within a confidence region about the parameter estimates. Although known to engineers, singularity bifurcation has not previously been seen in the economics literature. Knowledge of the nature of singularity-induced bifurcations is likely to become important in understanding the dynamics of modern macroeconometric models. This paper explains singularity-induced bifurcation, its nature, and its identification and contrasts this class of bifurcations with the more common forms of bifurcation we have previously encountered within the parameter space of the Bergstrom and Wymer (1976) continuous time macroeconometric model of the UK economy. (See, e.g., Barnett and He (1999, 2002)).

Suggested Citation

  • Yijun He & William A. Barnett, 2004. "Singularity Bifurcation," Macroeconomics 0409024, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 Oct 2004.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0409024
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 42
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barnett William A. & He Yijun, 1999. "Stability Analysis of Continuous-Time Macroeconometric Systems," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 1-22, January.
    2. William A. Barnett & Yijun He & ., 1999. "Stabilization Policy as Bifurcation Selection: Would Keynesian Policy Work if the World Really were Keynesian?," Macroeconomics 9906008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Herbert E. Scarf, 1959. "Some Examples of Global Instability of the Competitive Equilibrium," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 79, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Barnett, William A. & He, Yijun, 2002. "Stabilization Policy As Bifurcation Selection: Would Stabilization Policy Work If The Economy Really Were Unstable?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(5), pages 713-747, November.
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    7. William A. Barnett & Jane Binner & W. Erwin Diewert, 2005. "Functional Structure and Approximation in Econometrics (book front matter)," Econometrics 0511006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims, 1994. "Toward a Modern Macroeconomic Model Usable for Policy Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 81-140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Jess Benhabib & Kazuo Nishimura, 2012. "The Hopf Bifurcation and Existence and Stability of Closed Orbits in Multisector Models of Optimal Economic Growth," Springer Books, in: John Stachurski & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 51-73, Springer.
    10. William A. Barnett & Yijun He, 2004. "New Phenomena Identified in a Stochastic Dynamic Macroeconometric Model: A Bifurcation Perspective," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 145, Society for Computational Economics.
    11. Bala, Venkatesh & Majumdar, Mukul, 1992. "Chaotic Tatonnement," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 2(4), pages 437-445, October.
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    13. repec:cup:macdyn:v:6:y:2002:i:5:p:713-47 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Venkatesh Bala, 1997. "A pitchfork bifurcation in the tatonnement process," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 10(3), pages 521-530.
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    Cited by:

    1. Banerjee, Sanjibani & A. Barnett, William & A. Duzhak, Evgeniya & Gopalan, Ramu, 2011. "Bifurcation analysis of Zellner's Marshallian Macroeconomic Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 1577-1585, September.
    2. Barnett, William A. & Eryilmaz, Unal, 2013. "Hopf bifurcation in the Clarida, Gali, and Gertler model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 401-404.
    3. William Barnett & Evgeniya Duzhak, 2010. "Empirical assessment of bifurcation regions within New Keynesian models," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 45(1), pages 99-128, October.
    4. William A. Barnett & Taniya Ghosh, 2014. "Stability analysis of Uzawa–Lucas endogenous growth model," Economic Theory Bulletin, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 2(1), pages 33-44, April.
    5. Barnett, William A. & He, Susan, 2010. "Existence of singularity bifurcation in an Euler-equations model of the United States economy: Grandmont was right," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1345-1354, November.
    6. Moosavi Mohseni, Reza & Kilicman, Adem, 2014. "Hopf bifurcation in an open monetary economic system: Taylor versus inflation targeting rules," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 8-12.
    7. Serletis, Apostolos & Shahmoradi, Asghar & Serletis, Demitre, 2007. "Effect of noise on the bifurcation behavior of nonlinear dynamical systems," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 914-921.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bifurcation macroeconometrics dynamics nonlinearity singularity;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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