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Extracting growth and inflation expectations from financial market data

Author

Listed:
  • Lauri Kajanoja

    (Bank of Finland)

Abstract

This study presents a framework for extracting long-run GDP growth and inflation expectations from financial market data on a real-time basis. The framework uses information from both stock and bond markets. It builds on a dividend discount model of stock valuation and on a linearized consumption Euler equation. Furthermore, expected long-run dividend growth for a broad equity index is assumed to be related to expected long-run GDP growth. Short-run and long-run dividend growth expectations are allowed to differ. The former are measured using equity index futures. We extract growth and inflation expectations for the euro area and for the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Lauri Kajanoja, 2004. "Extracting growth and inflation expectations from financial market data," Macroeconomics 0404021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0404021
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update," NBER Working Papers 8221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Brian P. Sack, 2000. "Deriving inflation expectations from nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury yields," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation expectations; growth expectations; equity index futures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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