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Time Series Analysis Of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992

Author

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  • Nirvikar Singh

    (University of California, Santa Cruz)

  • Terrie Carolan

Abstract

We examine the composition of bilateral trade between the United States and each of eight Asian Pacific economies from 1962 to 1992. Two complementary time series analyses of individual commodities at the SITC four-digit level indicate that significant change occurred in trade composition during this period. For the eight bilateral trade relationships, commodities representing from fifty to seventy percent of 1992 dollar trade volume have shown statistically significant change in the magnitude and, in some cases, in the direction of net trade balance, over the thirty-year period. Results support the conclusion that changes in trade patterns in both low-tech industries, such as textiles and clothing, and more high-tech industries, such as electronic parts and electronic goods were important in these so-called Asian tigers as their economies advanced. Keywords: international trade flows, time series, ADF, KPSS, trends, economic development JEL Codes: F02, F14, F17, O14

Suggested Citation

  • Nirvikar Singh & Terrie Carolan, 2004. "Time Series Analysis Of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992," International Trade 0412003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0412003
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 24
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    international trade flows; time series; ADF; KPSS; trends; economic development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

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