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The Estimation of the NAIRU and the Effect of Permanent Sectoral Employment Reallocation. The Italian Evidence

Author

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  • Vincenzo Di Maro

    (University di Napoli Parthenope)

Abstract

This paper analyses the NAIRU making use of a cointegrated VAR and of Italian labour market data. We show that a cointegrated VAR represents a statistically adequate (using Aris Spanos's terminology) approach to the estimation of the NAIRU. This is an effective way to overcome several problems affecting standard structural approach. In particular the paper investigates whether permanent employment shift across Italian industrial sector [measured by the Neumann and Topel (1991)'s employment-based dispersion index] has an effect on unemployment. Among the findings of this paper we emphasize that sectoral employment shifts affect unemployment both in the long- and in the short-term. Moreover, we find that the effect of sectoral reallocation on the unemployment rate occurs only after some delay.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincenzo Di Maro, 2002. "The Estimation of the NAIRU and the Effect of Permanent Sectoral Employment Reallocation. The Italian Evidence," Econometrics 0207001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:0207001
    Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; pages: 40; figures: included. 27 pages of body text, PDF, figures included within the text
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    Cited by:

    1. Bozena Kaderabkova, 2016. "Development of the economic cycle on labour market in the national economy and industry of the Czech Republi," Proceedings of Business and Management Conferences 4407037, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconometrics; Employment Shifts; Italian Economy; NAIRU; VECM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General

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