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Estimating Vulnerability

Author

Listed:
  • Chris Elbers

    (Free University Amsterdam)

  • Jan Willem Gunning

    (Free University Amsterdam)

Abstract

Many existing measures of vulnerability lack a theoretical basis. In this paper we propose to measure vulnerability rigorously as the welfare of a household which solves an intertemporal optimisation model under risk.In such models, in essence a stochastic version of the Ramsey model, an important part of chronic poverty may be caused by the ex ante response of households to risks. Our simulation results indicate that whether or not a household is to be classified as vulnerable depends strongly on the time horizon considered. We use the model to assess the accuracy of existing regression-based vulnerability measures. We find that these methods can be vastly improved by including asset measures in the regression.

Suggested Citation

  • Chris Elbers & Jan Willem Gunning, 2004. "Estimating Vulnerability," Development and Comp Systems 0408015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0408015
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Erik Thorbecke, 2004. "Conceptual and Measurement Issues in Poverty Analysis," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2004-04, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Chris Elbers & Jan Willem Gunning & Bill Kinsey, 2007. "Growth and Risk: Methodology and Micro Evidence," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 21(1), pages 1-20.
    3. Emiliano Magrini & Pierluigi Montalbano, 2012. "Trade openness and vulnerability to poverty: Vietnam in the long-run (1992-2008)," Working Paper Series 3512, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vulnerability; household models.;

    JEL classification:

    • O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth
    • P - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems

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