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Decline in Extinction Rates and Scale Invariance in the Fossil Record

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  • M. E. J. Newman
  • Gunther J. Eble

Abstract

We show that the decline in the extinction rate during the Phanerozoic can be accurately parameterized by a logarithmic fit to the cumulative total extinction. This implies that extinction intensity is falling off approximately as the reciprocal of time. We demonstrate that this observation alone is sufficient to explain the existence of the proposed power-law forms in the distribution of the sizes of extinction events and in the power spectrum of Phanerozoic extinction, results which previously have been explained by appealing to self-organized critical theories of evolutionary dynamics. Appears in Paleobiology 25, 434-439 (1999).

Suggested Citation

  • M. E. J. Newman & Gunther J. Eble, 1998. "Decline in Extinction Rates and Scale Invariance in the Fossil Record," Working Papers 98-09-081, Santa Fe Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:wop:safiwp:98-09-081
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ricard V. Solé & Susanna C. Manrubia & Michael Benton & Per Bak, 1997. "Self-similarity of extinction statistics in the fossil record," Nature, Nature, vol. 388(6644), pages 764-767, August.
    2. M. E. J. Newman & Gunther J. Eble, 1998. "Power Spectra of Extinction in the Fossil Record," Working Papers 98-12-109, Santa Fe Institute.
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    Cited by:

    1. M. E. J. Newman & Paolo Sibani, 1998. "Extinction, Diversity, and Survivorship of Taxa in the Fossil Record," Working Papers 98-11-106, Santa Fe Institute.
    2. Ricard V. Sole & Susanna C. Manrubia & Juan Perez-Mercader & Michael Benton & Per Bak, 1998. "Long-Range Correlations in the Fossil Record and the Fractal Nature of Macroevolution," Working Papers 98-11-096, Santa Fe Institute.

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