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Evidence for Global Mixing in Real Influenza Epidemics

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  • Eric Bonabeau
  • Laurent Toubiana
  • Antoine Flahault

Abstract

The spatiotemporal behavior of the spread of influenza in France has been studied, and algebraic spatial correlations (with exponent ) spanning the whole territory have been found to be present as soon as the number of reported cases first starts to increase, about 15 to 25 weeks before the peak of the epidemic. This result is surprising, as one would expect long-range correlations, if any, only in the vicinity of the maximum incidence, whereas our observations suggest that there exists an underlying non-trivial spatial structure at the very beginning of the observed epidemic. The observed long-range correlations are in fact present in the spatial distribution of the population. Correlations in the number of cases normalized by local population density are characterized by This suggests that the spread of the epidemic is statistically uniform in space over a complex substrate that already contains the observed long-range correlations. To appear in: J. Physics A 31 (1998): L361--364.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Bonabeau & Laurent Toubiana & Antoine Flahault, 1998. "Evidence for Global Mixing in Real Influenza Epidemics," Working Papers 98-07-061, Santa Fe Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:wop:safiwp:98-07-061
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Bonabeau & Laurent Toubiana & Antoine Flahault, 1999. "The Geographic Spread of Influenza," Working Papers 99-01-004, Santa Fe Institute.

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    Keywords

    Influenza; spread; global mixing;
    All these keywords.

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