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A Simple Approach to Estimate Recovery Rates with APR Violation from Debt Spreads

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  • Haluk Unal
  • Dilip Madan
  • Levent Guntay

Abstract

This paper proposes a simple approach to estimate the implied recovery rates embedded in the prices of the debt securities of a firm that differ in priority at time of default. The approach allows for a complex capital structure setting assuming that the absolute priority rule (APR) can be violated. The paper demonstrates that a new statistic, the adjusted relative spread, captures recovery information in debt prices. Model implied recovery rates from corporate bond prices are observed to be consistent with the findings of Altman and Kishore (1996). Interest rates and firm tangible assets are shown to be significant determinants of recovery rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Haluk Unal & Dilip Madan & Levent Guntay, 2001. "A Simple Approach to Estimate Recovery Rates with APR Violation from Debt Spreads," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-07, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    • Handle: RePEc:wop:pennin:01-07
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    File URL: http://fic.wharton.upenn.edu/fic/papers/01/0107.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
    2. Greta Falavigna, 2006. "Models for Default Risk Analysis: Focus on Artificial Neural Networks, Model Comparisons, Hybrid Frameworks," CERIS Working Paper 200610, CNR-IRCrES Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Torino (TO) ITALY - former Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.
    3. International Association of Deposit Insurers, 2011. "Evaluation of Deposit Insurance Fund Sufficiency on the Basis of Risk Analysis," IADI Research Papers 11-11, International Association of Deposit Insurers.
    4. Wilson Sy, 2007. "A Causal Framework for Credit Default Theory," Research Paper Series 204, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    5. Linda Allen & Anthony Saunders, 2003. "A survey of cyclical effects in credit risk measurement model," BIS Working Papers 126, Bank for International Settlements.

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