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Is the Bank of Canada concerned about inflation or the state of the economy?

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Abstract

This paper examines the behaviour of the Bank of Canada (BoC) since the adoption of the inflation-targeting framework. We use a newly released dataset that contains quarterly vintages of real-time historical data and BoC staff forecasts, and we present the following novel empirical findings. First, the BoC appears to have increased its focus towards the state of the economy. Over the sample period, we find that the response to inflation weakens and the response to the real economy rises substantially. Second, the BoC appears to be responding to an alternative inflation measure: persistent expected future inflation deviations. We fi nd that transitory or past inflation deviations do not elicit a response. Third, the BoC appears to respond asymmetrically to positive and negative persistent expected future inflation deviations. We fi nd an aggressive response to positive inflation deviations that declines over time in favour of a modest response to negative inflation deviations, suggesting that persistent expected future inflation overshoots and undershoots elicit different responses and these responses are time-varying.

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  • Ke Pang, Christos Shiamptanis, 2022. "Is the Bank of Canada concerned about inflation or the state of the economy?," LCERPA Working Papers bm0138, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised Jul 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:wlu:lcerpa:bm0138
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    File URL: https://lcerpa.org/files/LCERPA_2022_2.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    asymmetric monetary policy; expected inflation deviations; real-time data and forecasts; forward looking Taylor rule;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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