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The dynamic impact of monetary policy on regional housing prices in the US: Evidence based on factor-augmented vector autoregressions

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  • Fischer, Manfred M.
  • Huber, Florian
  • Pfarrhofer, Michael
  • Staufer-Steinnocher, Petra

Abstract

In this study interest centers on regional differences in the response of housing prices to monetary policy shocks in the US. We address this issue by analyzing monthly home price data for metropolitan regions using a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model. Bayesian model estimation is based on Gibbs sampling with Normal-Gamma shrinkage priors for the autoregressive coefficients and factor loadings, while monetary policy shocks are identified using high-frequency surprises around policy announcements as external instruments. The empirical results indicate that monetary policy actions typically have sizeable and significant positive effects on regional housing prices, revealing differences in magnitude and duration. The largest effects are observed in regions located in states on both the East and West Coasts, notably California, Arizona and Florida.

Suggested Citation

  • Fischer, Manfred M. & Huber, Florian & Pfarrhofer, Michael & Staufer-Steinnocher, Petra, 2018. "The dynamic impact of monetary policy on regional housing prices in the US: Evidence based on factor-augmented vector autoregressions," Working Papers in Regional Science 2018/01, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wus046:6065
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joseph Vavra & Erik Hurst & Andreas Fuster & Martin Beraja, 2017. "Regional Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy," 2017 Meeting Papers 270, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Jonas E. Arias & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2013. "Inference Based on SVARs Identied with Sign and Zero Restrictions: Theory and Applications," Working Papers 1338, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    3. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
    4. Fratantoni, Michael & Schuh, Scott, 2003. "Monetary Policy, Housing, and Heterogeneous Regional Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 557-589, August.
    5. Baffoe-Bonnie, John, 1998. "The Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic Aggregates on Housing Prices and Stock of Houses: A National and Regional Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 179-197, September.
    6. Jonas E. Arias & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2014. "Inference Based on SVARs Identified with Sign and Zero Restrictions: Theory and Applications," International Finance Discussion Papers 1100, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. George, Edward I. & Sun, Dongchu & Ni, Shawn, 2008. "Bayesian stochastic search for VAR model restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 553-580, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gianni La Cava & Calvin He, 2021. "The Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Local Housing Markets in Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 54(3), pages 387-397, September.
    2. Calvin He & Gianni La Cava, 2020. "The Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Local Housing Markets," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2020-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regional housing prices; metropolitan regions; Bayesian estimation; high-frequency identification;
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