The settlements of the North: sustainable development or disappearance (case of Yakutia)

Study of disparities between Russia's territories is mostly carried at the level of the subjects of the Russian Federation or cities with similar populations. Comparative analysis of settlements is obstructed by incomplete statistics, imperfection of tax and account rules and effect of shadow sector. Predominantly the base of comparative analysis of settlements is the data of National Population Census (2002 and 2010). However such studies allow us to determine the main long-term trends in the development of settlements. As known, the imbalance of legislation about local governments does not leave for Russian settlements own resources of growth. Until recently, the concept of uniform development dominated. It suggests the equalizing of social and economic condition of settlements. In Yakutia, this approach is realized by storing of redundant of public institutions and employment. As a result, Yakutia face with budget problems and the quality of life declines. In rural settlements jobs are created only in the public sector. There is a reproduction of rural poverty. All of this stimulates the migration of people in cities for the last 20 years. But these trends do not impact on economic policy. The Government of Yakutia seeks to preserve the rural settlements. The research is based on the use of econometric methods in the study of those disparities. There was created a database for the 2006/2007 and 2010/2012. It includes 389 settlements of Yakutia. Analysis of the data allowed selected all settlements by population. The indices of the demographic potential, the quality of public service, the transport availability, the financial security and the economic activity were calculated by using econometric methods. Analysis allowed to identify the production specialization of settlements and their types, including unpromising (must be disappeared), depressive, stagnating and growth point. Dynamic analysis shows that the settlements with more than 2,000 people are sustainable. Settlements with smaller populations are usually depressed. There was created the vector of settlement protection from the closure. It means that the settlements of historical significance and settlements with traditional economies (reindeer herding and fishing) don't have to be closed. Analysis showed the necessity of moving from the concept of uniform development to the principles of selective development. It requires new approaches to regional policies in Russia.