Author
Listed:
- Roberta Capello
- Barbara Chizzolini
- Ugo Fratesi
Abstract
The paper presents the second step of an ambitious research project, which has the aim to provide territorial scenarios of the New Europe in 15 years, developed under different hypotheses on the most important driving forces of change in the fields of economy, demographic, society, technology and institutions. The first step was presented last year at the ERSA conference in Amsterdam. In that occasion, the paper dealt with the econometric model (labelled MASST – Macroeconomic, social, sectoral and territorial model) built for the forecasting activity, presenting its strengths and weaknesses and the main results obtained by the estimates of the model. In this paper the additional work is presented, and the main conceptual and methodological steps forward analysed. In particular, the aims of the paper are the following: - to present the main driving forces that influence the future of Europe and of its territory. These are of different nature: socio-cultural (future migration forces and future birth and death rates), institutional (deepening vs. widening of enlargement), macroeconomic (trend in the euro/$ exchange rate, trend in fiscal morality – i.e. trend in public debts, revision of the Maastricht parameters -, trend in interest rates, trend in inflation rate, geo-political orientation of FDI, rebalancing of external accounts of big emerging countries; increase in energy price), political (reforms of the structural funds and of the Community Agricultural Policy); - to present the different hypotheses under which the scenarios are built. The idea is to build three scenarios, a baseline scenario, a competitive and a cohesive scenario, and to present the differences among them; - to present the results of the simulation. The MASST model is able to provide both regional GDP growth rates and GDP levels, as well as regional population growth rates, and population levels, for the three scenarios. The model is able to provide the simulations for 27 Countries (the old 15 EU members, the new 10 Countries and Bulgaria and Romania) and for their 259 regions.
Suggested Citation
Roberta Capello & Barbara Chizzolini & Ugo Fratesi, 2006.
"Territorial Scenarios for an Integrated Europe: Driving Forces of Change and Quantitative Forecasts,"
ERSA conference papers
ersa06p177, European Regional Science Association.
Handle:
RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa06p177
Download full text from publisher
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa06p177. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gunther Maier (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ersa.org .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through
the various RePEc services.