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Dynamic Consequences of Monetary Policy for Financial Stability

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Abstract

We theoretically investigate the state-dependent effects of monetary policy on macroeconomic instability. In the model, banks borrow using deposits and allocate resources to productive projects. Because banks do not actively issue equity, aggregate outcomes depend on the level of equity in the financial sector. Carefully targeted monetary policy can improve stability by increasing the rate of bank equity growth, and improve allocations by encouraging leverage when intermediation is needed. A fed put is generally stabilizing, but the marginal impact of a rate cut depends on the state of the economy. The effectiveness of monetary policy depends on the extent to which rate cuts pass through to bank returns. When banks are relatively well-capitalized, rate cuts primarily decrease banks' returns. In terms of welfare, the costs of "leaning against the wind" generally outweigh the benefits, but a fed put can improve outcomes if the costs of deviating from the inflation target are sufficiently small.

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  • William Chen & Gregory Phelan, 2018. "Dynamic Consequences of Monetary Policy for Financial Stability," Department of Economics Working Papers 2018-06, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  • Handle: RePEc:wil:wileco:2018-06
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    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Leaning against the wind; Financial stability; Macroeconomic instability; Banks; Liquidity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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