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Fighting Depreciation and Inflationary Pressures

Author

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  • Vasily Astrov

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

Abstract

The Russian authorities have been battling strong depreciation pressures, with the rouble having lost around 30% of its value since early 2023 (and inflationary pressures having risen strongly). The main reason for this is the declining supply of foreign exchange from foreign trade transactions, due to (i) a steady rise in the share of export contracts denominated in roubles, and (ii) the declining share of export earnings in foreign currency converted into roubles. To address the latter problem, on 16 October the authorities imposed a surrender requirement for export proceeds, which has proved highly effective at stabilising the exchange rate. However, despite this and a sharp rise in the policy rate of 7.5 pp in total since June, inflation has continued to accelerate, reflecting the ongoing expansionary fiscal stance, but also the lengthy nature of some monetary transmission mechanisms.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasily Astrov, 2024. "Fighting Depreciation and Inflationary Pressures," Russia Monitor 2, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  • Handle: RePEc:wii:rusmon:2
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    File URL: https://wiiw.ac.at/fighting-depreciation-and-inflationary-pressures-dlp-6733.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vasily Astrov & Artem Kochnev & Vincent Stamer & Feodora Teti, 2024. "The Russian Economy Amidst the War and Sanctions," Russia Monitor 1, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
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      More about this item

      Keywords

      surrender requirement; exchange rate; inflation; credit growth;
      All these keywords.

      JEL classification:

      • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
      • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
      • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
      • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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