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Western Balkans EU Accession: Is the 2025 Target Date Realistic?

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Grieveson

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Julia Grübler
  • Mario Holzner

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

Abstract

The European Commission has set a target date of 2025 for Western Balkan EU accession, while also outlining a broader new strategy which includes Brussels taking a more active role in solving political disputes in the region, and upgrading infrastructure as part of the Berlin Process. We welcome these moves economic underdevelopment in the region is closely tied to political fractures. Aside from resolving political conflicts, improved governance in the region will also be necessary. In terms of meeting economic accession criteria, the region faces a host of challenges, but we believe that a focus on upgrading infrastructure and developing a much bigger and more competitive industrial base should be the priorities. While the economic influence of third parties in the region is not as significant as often portrayed, this is not guaranteed to last, particularly in the case of China, which is set to increase its economic presence in the Western Balkans in the coming years. Even if the region takes a great leap forward towards the EU, there are other barriers in the way which could also hold back accession. Nevertheless, while the 2025 target represents a highly ambitious best-case scenario, it could serve as a powerful incentive for countries in the region to speed up their reform agendas. We do not completely rule out at least Montenegro and Serbia joining the bloc by 2025 or shortly thereafter.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Grieveson & Julia Grübler & Mario Holzner, 2018. "Western Balkans EU Accession: Is the 2025 Target Date Realistic?," wiiw Policy Notes 22, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    • Handle: RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:22
    as

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    File URL: https://wiiw.ac.at/western-balkans-eu-accession-is-the-2025-target-date-realistic--dlp-4526.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mario Holzner, 2016. "Policy Options for Competitiveness and Economic Development in the Western Balkans: the Case for Infrastructure Investment," wiiw Policy Notes 16, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    2. Stephan Barisitz & Alice Radzyner, 2017. "The New Silk Road, part I: a stocktaking and economic assessment," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q3/17, pages 8-30.
    3. Alexandra Bykova & Mahdi Ghodsi & Julia Grübler & Doris Hanzl-Weiss & Mario Holzner & Gabor Hunya & Robert Stehrer, 2018. "Economic Policy Implications of the Belt and Road Initiative for CESEE and Austria," wiiw Policy Notes 23, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    4. Mario Holzner & Robert Stehrer & Hermine Vidovic, 2015. "Infrastructure Investment in the Western Balkans," wiiw Research Reports 407, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Larch,Mario,Tan,Shawn Weiming,Yotov,Yoto Valentinov, 2021. "A Simple Method to Quantify the ex-ante Effects of “Deep” Trade Liberalization and “Hard” Trade Protection," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9791, The World Bank.
    2. Oliver Reiter & Monika Schwarzhappel & Robert Stehrer, 2020. "Productivity and Competitiveness of the Western Balkan countries: An Analysis Based on the wiiw Western Balkan Productivity Database," wiiw Policy Notes 37, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    3. Larch, Mario & Tan, Shawn W. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2023. "A simple method to ex-ante quantify the unobservable effects of trade liberalization and trade protection," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1200-1213.
    4. Oliver Reiter & Robert Stehrer, 2021. "Value Chain Integration of the Western Balkan Countries and Policy Options for the Post-COVID-19 Period," wiiw Policy Notes 48, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    5. Mario Holzner & Monika Schwarzhappel, 2018. "Infrastructure Investment in the Western Balkans: A First Analysis," wiiw Research Reports 432, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    6. Amat Adarov & Richard Grieveson & Mario Holzner & Olga Pindyuk & Hermine Vidovic, 2019. "Unsecured Lending in Central and Southeast Europe," wiiw Market Report 1, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    integration; governance; economic growth; competitiveness; industrialisation; infrastructure; economic policy; Western Balkans; EU;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • O20 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - General
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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