Monthly Report No. 7-8/2024

Summer Forecast Update Solid but Lopsided Recovery Economic Forecasts for Eastern Europe for 2024-26 Global assumptions Getting better, slowly by Richard Grieveson CESEE Overview Solid but lopsided recovery by Vasily Astrov Country updates Albania Solid economic growth by Isilda Mara Belarus Recovery continues, defying expectations by Rumen Dobrinsky Bosnia and Herzegovina Inflation slowing, but economy remains weak by Selena Duraković Bulgaria Economy lacks direction amidst a messy political situation by Rumen Dobrinsky Croatia Outlook remains positive by Bernd Christoph Ströhm Czechia On track for moderate recovery by Zuzana Zavarská Estonia On the verge of growth by Maryna Tverdostup Hungary Mounting fiscal problems prevail by Sándor Richter Kazakhstan Oil production cuts undermine economic growth by Alexandra Bykova Kosovo Good growth momentum by Isilda Mara Latvia Upswing approaching, but only slowly by Sebastian Leitner Lithuania Household consumption puts an end to stagnation by Sebastian Leitner Moldova Slow recovery despite subdued inflation by Gábor Hunya Montenegro Some question marks, but overall positive by Branimir Jovanović North Macedonia Change, but possibly not in the right direction by Branimir Jovanović Poland Strong currency, low inflation by Adam Żurawski Romania Growing fiscal tension by Gábor Hunya Russia Economy resilient to tight monetary conditions by Vasily Astrov Serbia Economy growing, but challenges remain by Branimir Jovanović Slovakia Mounting political risks by Doris Hanzl-Weiss Slovenia Solid growth expected in year of infrastructure rebuilding and disinflation by Niko Korpar Turkey Despite market confidence, the data paint an uncertain outlook by Meryem Gökten Ukraine Economy undermined by Russia’s missile attack on the energy infrastructure by Olga Pindyuk