Monthly Report No. 1/2023

Winter Forecast Update Resilience Put to the Test by War Fallout Economic Forecasts for Eastern Europe for 2023-25 Despite the war in Ukraine and the highest inflation for 15 years or more in many countries, the economies of Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) are demonstrating their resilience. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy of using energy as a weapon has failed, as most countries have already significantly reduced gas consumption. Although economic activity has slowed significantly, a full-year recession will be largely avoided in CESEE this year, except in Hungary – and Russia, whose economy will continue to decline (-3%), following the 2.5% contraction in 2022. After a 30% slump in GDP last year, Ukraine should recover somewhat this year (3%), although this forecast is subject to great uncertainty and depends, above all, on the future course of the war. Overview by Richard Grieveson Growth has slowed due to high inflation, but most economies are adapting, and the recovery will strengthen from the second half of 2023. Country updates Albania Weaker though resilient growth expected by Isilda Mara Belarus Decoupling from Europe leads to lasting economic weakness by Rumen Dobrinsky Bosnia and Herzegovina One step closer to EU membership by Selena Duraković Bulgaria Imbalances likely to stay as snap elections result in another split parliament by Rumen Dobrinsky Croatia A new euro area member by Bernd Christoph Ströhm Czechia Growth constrained by struggling domestic demand by Zuzana Zavarská Estonia Combating the effects of the energy crisis by Maryna Tverdostup Hungary Bleak short-term growth prospects by Sándor Richter Kazakhstan Hopes for investment-driven growth by Alexandra Bykova Kosovo Another difficult year ahead to meet energy needs by Isilda Mara Latvia Rising confidence in the recession to be short-lived by Sebastian Leitner Lithuania Resisting a war-induced recession by Sebastian Leitner Moldova Emerging from the energy crisis? by Gábor Hunya Montenegro Growing, despite instability by Nina Vujanović North Macedonia FDI lifting the economy? by Branimir Jovanović Poland A slowdown in the making by Adam Żurawski Romania Deceleration despite an engine change by Gábor Hunya Russia Energy exports crippled by sanctions by Vasily Astrov Serbia The price of close relations with Russia by Branimir Jovanović Slovakia Outlook threatened by political turmoil by Doris Hanzl-Weiss Slovenia Despite subdued prospects, still ahead of the EU average by Niko Korpar Turkey Foot to the floor as election approaches by Richard Grieveson Ukraine Defying Russia’s bombs by Olga Pindyuk