Monthly Report No. 10/2022

Chart of the Month Gas supply cuts as Russia’s weapon in the economic war with the West by Vasily Astrov Gazprom’s gas exit by Andrei V. Belyi By going to war with Ukraine, Russia clearly chose the short-term geopolitical agenda over its longer-term economic interests. In the aftermath of the EU sanctions and Russia’s counter-sanctions, there is only one major gas export route to the EU that remains unaffected by Russia’s supply cuts the one via Turkey. Meanwhile, deliveries via the Yamal-Europe pipeline, Nord Stream 1 and Ukraine have all suffered to varying degrees. Thus, ironically, Gazprom has helped the EU in its efforts to reduce its dependence on Russian gas by two thirds by the end of the year. Opinion Corner Russia’s economic suicide, act 2 by Vladislav Inozemtsev The economic consequences of the recently announced military mobilisation in Russia will be dramatic and manifold. Up to 8% of the male workforce will be lost, consumption and investment will suffer, and new Western sanctions are on the cards. As a result, Russian GDP could decline by 10% this year. Ukraine’s public finances radical change in time of war by Tetiana Bogdan Since the start of the Russian aggression, Ukraine’s government revenues have plunged sharply; by contrast, expenditure has risen on the back of defence spending. So far, the ensuing fiscal gap has been covered by a combination of foreign aid and deficit monetisation; but more foreign aid will be needed to face the upcoming challenges. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe