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Braced for Fallout from Global Slowdown

Author

Listed:
  • Vasily Astrov

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Alexandra Bykova

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Rumen Dobrinsky

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Vladimir Gligorov

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Richard Grieveson

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Doris Hanzl-Weiss

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Gabor Hunya

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Sebastian Leitner

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Isilda Mara

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Olga Pindyuk

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Leon Podkaminer

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Sandor Richter

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

  • Hermine Vidovic

    (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)

Abstract

Much of CESEE has so far weathered the slowdown in the global economy well, but signs of contagion are starting to emerge. Global economic growth is at its weakest level since the 2008-09 crisis, and there is no way that the region will be able to avoid this, given its high degree of reliance on exports and integration with Germany. Although the peak years are over, we expect a soft landing rather than an outright collapse for CESEE. Domestic demand will remain resilient, helped by strong wage growth, robust public investment, loose fiscal policy and plentiful credit. Downside risks to our projections are significant, and include a smaller post-Brexit EU budget, the fallout from global trade tensions, the impact of political developments in CESEE on institutions, and potential instability emanating from the financial sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasily Astrov & Alexandra Bykova & Rumen Dobrinsky & Vladimir Gligorov & Richard Grieveson & Doris Hanzl-Weiss & Gabor Hunya & Sebastian Leitner & Isilda Mara & Olga Pindyuk & Leon Podkaminer & Sandor, 2019. "Braced for Fallout from Global Slowdown," wiiw Forecast Reports Autumn2019, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    • Handle: RePEc:wii:fpaper:fc:autumn2019
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    File URL: https://wiiw.ac.at/braced-for-fallout-from-global-slowdown-dlp-5056.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marek Dabrowski, 2019. "Factors determining Russia's long-term growth rate," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 5(4), pages 328-353, December.
    2. Valentin Jouvanceau, 2023. "Consumer price rigidity in periods of low and high inflation: the case of Lithuania," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 34, Bank of Lithuania.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CESEE; economic forecast; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Southeast Europe; Western Balkans; new EU Member States; CIS; Russia; Ukraine; Romania; Czech Republic; Hungary; Turkey; Serbia; convergence; business cycle; overheating; external risks; trade war; EU funds; private consumption; credit; investment; exports; FDI; labour markets; unemployment; employment; wage growth; migration; inflation; central banks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • P27 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects
    • P33 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid
    • P52 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

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