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Nominal and Real Convergence in Estonia: The Balassa-Samuelson (dis)connection

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  • Bal??zs ??gert

Abstract

The objective of the paper is to analyse the nominal and real convergence process in Estonia drawing on the Balassa-Samuelson (B-S) framework. A 15-sectoral breakdown for GDP and a 5-digit level CPI data disaggregation with over 260 items is used for the period 1993:Q1 to 2002:Q1 to show that the productivity differential is related to the GDP-deflator relative price of non-tradable goods in the long-run. Furthermore, the role of regulated prices in the CPI basket is also investigated: we show that excluding regulated prices makes it possible to detect a robust relationship between productivity and the relative price of market services in CPI. The B-S effect could have possibly contributed to CPI by a yearly average of 2% to 3% over the sample period, with 1% to 4% at the beginning of the period and 0,5% to 1% in 2000 and 2001. The potential long-run impact of the B-S effect in Estonia is estimated to amount to 1%-2% . The analysis of the influence of the B-S effect on the inflation differential and the real appreciation of the exchange rate against Finland, Sweden, Germany and the UK shows that whereas the inflation differential attributable to the B-S effect seems to be higher in the early 1990s, it explains better the real appreciation, which has occurred in recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Bal??zs ??gert, 2003. "Nominal and Real Convergence in Estonia: The Balassa-Samuelson (dis)connection," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 556, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    • Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2003-556
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan, 2004. "Real exchange rate dynamics in transition economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 83-100, March.
    2. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
    3. repec:zbw:bofitp:2001_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 2002. "Determining the Order of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 18-24, January.
    5. Laszlo Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 2001. "Economic Transformation and Real Exchange Rates in the 2000s: The Balassa-Samuelson Connection," ECE Discussion Papers Series 2001_1, UNECE.
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    1. Egert, Balazs & Drine, Imed & Lommatzsch, Kirsten & Rault, Christophe, 2003. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect in Central and Eastern Europe: myth or reality?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 552-572, September.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_009 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Balázs Égert & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the Transition: The Tradable Price-Based Real Appreciation and Estimation Uncertainty," Springer Books, in: Paul J.J. Welfens & Anna Wziątek-Kubiak (ed.), Structural Change and Exchange Rate Dynamics, pages 205-239, Springer.
    4. repec:zbw:bofitp:2004_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Égert, Balázs, 2004. "Assessing equilibrium exchange rates in CEE acceding countries: can we have DEER with BEER without FEER? A critical survey of the literature," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2004, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    6. Nicholas Apergis, 2013. "The domestic Balassa--Samuelson effect of inflation for the Greek economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(23), pages 3288-3294, August.

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    Keywords

    convergence; transition; Balassa-Samuelson effect; productivity; relative prices; tradable goods; regulated prices; real exchange rate;
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