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How much oil is the Islamic state group producing ? evidence from remote sensing

Author

Listed:
  • Do,Quy-Toan
  • Shapiro,Jacob N.
  • Elvidge,Christopher D.
  • Abdel Jelil,Mohamed
  • Ahn,Daniel P.
  • Baugh,Kimberly
  • Hansen-Lewis,Jamie Nicole
  • Zhizhin,Mikhail

Abstract

Accurately measuring oil production in low-governance contexts is an important task. Many terrorist organizations and insurgencies -- including the Islamic State group, also known as ISIL/ISIS or Daesh -- tap oil as a revenue source. Understanding spatial and temporal variation in production in their territory can help address such threats by providing near real-time monitoring of their revenue streams, helping to assess long-term economic potential, and informing reconstruction strategies. More broadly, remotely measuring extractive industry activity in conflict-affected areas and other regions without reliable administrative data can support a broad range of public policy decisions and academic research. This paper uses satellite multi-spectral imaging and ground-truth pre-war output data to effectively construct a real-time day-to-day census of oil production in areas controlled by the terrorist group. The estimates of production levels were approximately 56,000 barrels per day (bpd) from July-December 2014, drop to an average of 35,000 bpd throughout 2015, before dropping further to approximately 16,000 bpd in 2016.

Suggested Citation

  • Do,Quy-Toan & Shapiro,Jacob N. & Elvidge,Christopher D. & Abdel Jelil,Mohamed & Ahn,Daniel P. & Baugh,Kimberly & Hansen-Lewis,Jamie Nicole & Zhizhin,Mikhail, 2017. "How much oil is the Islamic state group producing ? evidence from remote sensing," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8231, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8231
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    Cited by:

    1. Christiana Parreira, 2021. "Power politics: Armed non-state actors and the capture of public electricity in post-invasion Baghdad," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(4), pages 749-762, July.
    2. Hamidzadeh, Zeinab & Sattari, Sourena & Soltanieh, Mohammad & Vatani, Ali, 2020. "Development of a multi-objective decision-making model to recover flare gases in a multi flare gases zone," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).

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    Keywords

    Conflict and Fragile States;

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