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Assessing the accuracy of electricity demand forecasts in developing countries

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  • Steinbuks,Jevgenijs

Abstract

This study assesses the accuracy of time-series econometric methods in forecasting electricity demand in developing countries. The analysis of historical time series for 106 developing countries over 1960-2012 demonstrates that econometric forecasts are highly accurate for the majority of these countries. These forecasts significantly outperform predictions of simple heuristic models, which assume that electricity demand grows at an exogenous rate or is proportional to real gross domestic product growth. The quality of the forecasts, however, diminishes for the countries and regions, where rapid economic and structural transformation or exposure to conflicts and environmental disasters makes it difficult to establish stable historical demand trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Steinbuks,Jevgenijs, 2017. "Assessing the accuracy of electricity demand forecasts in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7974, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7974
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    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/728681487169710866/pdf/WPS7974.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Rabindra Nepal & Muhammad Indra al Irsyad & Tooraj Jamasb, 2021. "Sectoral Electricity Demand and Direct Rebound Effects inNew Zealand," The Energy Journal, , vol. 42(4), pages 153-174, July.
    2. Angel Manuel Benitez Rodriguez & Ian Michael Trotter, 2019. "Climate change scenarios for Paraguayan power demand 2017–2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 425-445, October.
    3. Nepal, Rabindra & Sharma, Bikash & al Irsyad, M. Indra, 2020. "Scarce data and energy research: Estimating regional energy consumption in complex economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 139-152.

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    Keywords

    Energy Policies&Economics;

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