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Second-stage sampling for conflict areas : methods and implications

Author

Listed:
  • Himelein,Kristen
  • Eckman,Stephanie
  • Murray,Siobhan
  • Bauer,Johannes

Abstract

The collection of survey data from war zones or other unstable security situations is vulnerable to error because conflict often limits the implementation options. Although there are elevated risks throughout the process, this paper focuses specifically on challenges to frame construction and sample selection. The paper uses simulations based on data from the Mogadishu High Frequency Survey Pilot to examine the implications of the choice of second-stage selection methodology on bias and variance. Among the other findings, the simulations show the bias introduced by a random walk design leads to the underestimation of the poverty headcount by more than 10 percent. The paper also discusses the experience of the authors in the time required and technical complexity of the associated back-office preparation work and weight calculations for each method. Finally, as the simulations assume perfect implementation of the design, the paper also discusses practicality, including the ease of implementation and options for remote verification, and outlines areas for future research and pilot testing.

Suggested Citation

  • Himelein,Kristen & Eckman,Stephanie & Murray,Siobhan & Bauer,Johannes, 2016. "Second-stage sampling for conflict areas : methods and implications," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7617, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7617
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    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/434031467995412713/pdf/WPS7617.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Diego Alburez-Gutierrez, 2019. "Blood is thicker than bloodshed: A genealogical approach to reconstruct populations after armed conflicts," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 40(23), pages 627-656.
    2. Ebelechukwu Maduekwe & Walter Timo de Vries, 2019. "Random Spatial and Systematic Random Sampling Approach to Development Survey Data: Evidence from Field Application in Malawi," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-27, December.
    3. Pape,Utz Johann & Wollburg,Philip Randolph, 2019. "Estimation of Poverty in Somalia Using Innovative Methodologies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8735, The World Bank.

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