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Can wage subsidies boost employment in the wake of an economic crisis ? evidence from Mexico

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  • Bruhn,Miriam

Abstract

The rise in unemployment during an economic crisis poses a significant concern to policy makers. This paper measures the effect of a program in Mexico that granted firms in certain industries wage subsidies if they decided to keep their workers instead of letting them go during the recent economic crisis. The analysis uses monthly administrative data on employment at the industry level, along with propensity score matching to construct groups of eligible and ineligible durable goods manufacturing industries that display statistically identical pre-program trends in employment. Difference-in-difference results show a positive but not statistically significant effect of the wage subsidies on employment during the program?s eight-month duration, ranging from 5.7 to 13.2 percent in magnitude, depending on the specification. The size of the effect increases to 24 percent after the program ended and the results indicate that employment after the program recovered faster in eligible industries than in ineligible industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruhn,Miriam, 2016. "Can wage subsidies boost employment in the wake of an economic crisis ? evidence from Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7607, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7607
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    Cited by:

    1. Grover,Arti Goswami & Karplus,Valerie Jean, 2021. "Coping with COVID-19: Does Management Make Firms More Resilient ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9514, The World Bank.
    2. David McKenzie, 2017. "How Effective Are Active Labor Market Policies in Developing Countries? A Critical Review of Recent Evidence," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 32(2), pages 127-154.
    3. Amina Ebrahim & Murray Leibbrandt & Vimal Ranchhod, 2017. "The effects of the Employment Tax Incentive on South African employment," WIDER Working Paper Series 005, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. repec:iab:iabjlr:v:55:i::p:art.17 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Amina Ebrahim & Murray Leibbrandt & Vimal Ranchhod, 2017. "The effects of the Employment Tax Incentive on South African employment," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-5, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Apedo Amah,Marie Christine & Avdiu,Besart & Cirera,Xavier & Vargas Da Cruz,Marcio Jose & Davies,Elwyn Adriaan Robin & Grover,Arti Goswami & Iacovone,Leonardo & Kilinc,Umut & Medvedev,Denis & Maduko,Fr, 2020. "Unmasking the Impact of COVID-19 on Businesses : Firm Level Evidence from Across the World," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9434, The World Bank.
    7. Nicolò Bird, 2020. "Evidence from global practices of active labour market policies for young people’s transition to work," Policy Research Brief 71, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    8. Hirvonen, Johannes & Kässi, Otto & Ropponen, Olli, 2023. "Jobs, Workers, and Firms: Dissecting the Labour Market Effects of Finland’s COVID-19 Subsidy Program," ETLA Working Papers 111, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    9. Brucal,Arlan Zandro Ilagan & Grover,Arti Goswami & Reyes Ortega,Santiago, 2021. "Damaged by the Disaster : The Impact of COVID-19 on Firms in South Asia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9604, The World Bank.
    10. Abdellatif Chatri & Khadija Hadef & Naima Samoudi, 2021. "Micro-econometric evaluation of subsidized employment in morocco: the case of the "Idmaj" program," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 55(1), pages 1-13, December.
    11. Karalashvili,Nona & Tamkoc,Mehmet Nazim, 2022. "Effectiveness of Government Support for the Private Sector during the COVID-19 Crisis : Evidence from ElSalvador and Georgia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9980, The World Bank.
    12. Cravo, Tulio A. & de Andrade Jacinto, Paulo & Quintana, Rodrigo, 2024. "Can work sharing sustain employment during economic downturn? Evidence from Brazil," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    13. Halima Jibril & Stephen Roper & Mark Hart, 2021. "COVID-19, business support and SME productivity in the UK," Working Papers 005, The Productivity Institute.
    14. Francesco Campobasso & Michele Samuele Borgia & Francesco Albergo, 2023. "Facing the storm: Lessons from corporate social responsibility during the covid pandemic," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(6), pages 3174-3188, November.
    15. Xavier Cirera & Marcio Cruz & Elwyn Davies & Arti Grover & Leonardo Iacovone & Jose Ernesto Lopez Cordova & Denis Medvedev & Franklin Okechukwu Maduko & Gaurav Nayyar & Santiago Reyes Ortega & Jesica , 2021. "Policies to Support Businesses through the COVID-19 Shock: A Firm Level Perspective [Economic Uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 Pandemic]," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 36(1), pages 41-66.
    16. Armand, Alex & Carneiro, Pedro & Tagliati, Federico & Xia, Yiming, 2020. "Can Subsidized Employment Tackle Long-Term Unemployment? Experimental Evidence from North Macedonia," IZA Discussion Papers 13478, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Kim, Hyejin & Lee, Jungmin, 2019. "Can employment subsidies save jobs? Evidence from a shipbuilding city in South Korea," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    18. Calzada Olvera, Beatriz & Gonzalez-Sauri, Mario & Moya, David-Alexander Harings & Louvin, Federico, 2022. "Covid-19 in Central America: Firm resilience and policy responses on employment," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 1280-1295.
    19. Ghorpade,Yashodhan & Franco Restrepo,Camila & Castellanos Rodriguez,Luis Eduardo, 2024. "Social Protection and Labor Market Policies for the Informally Employed : A Review of Evidence from Low- and Middle-Income Countries," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 188471, The World Bank.
    20. Natalia Bermúdez-Barrezueta & Sam Desiere & Giulia Tarullo, 2025. "Hiring subsidies and temporary work agencies," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 25/1103, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    21. Bermúdez-Barrezueta, Natalia & Desiere, Sam & Tarullo, Giulia, 2025. "Hiring Subsidies and Temporary Work Agencies," IZA Discussion Papers 17616, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    22. Selim Raihan & FNU Jonaed & Md. Tuhin Ahmed, 2024. "Impact of Stimulus Packages on Business Recovery During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Bangladesh," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 19(2), pages 169-198, August.
    23. Wei Cui & Jeffrey Hicks & Max Norton, 2022. "How well-targeted are payroll tax cuts as a response to COVID-19? evidence from China," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(5), pages 1321-1347, October.
    24. Chatri, Abdellatif & Hadef, Khadija & Samoudi, Naima, 2021. "Micro-econometric evaluation of subsidized employment in morocco: the case of the "Idmaj" program," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 55, pages 1-17.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor Markets; Rural Labor Markets; Labor Policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

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