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Managing financial risks in Papua New Guinea : an optimal external debt portfolio

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Listed:
  • Coleman, Jonathan R.
  • Ying Qian

Abstract

This report shows that Papua New Guinea's assets and liabilities may be poorly balanced for debt servicing. Thus, it could benefit substantially from active risk management, especially through better selection of the financial instruments in its debt portfolio. The authors present a model and estimate of an optiomal debt portfolio that allows for the use of commodity-linked bonds and conventional debt denominated in different currencies. They judge the hedging effectiveness of this portfolio by how much the variance of expected real import is reduced. The results indicate that commodity-linked bonds could play an important role in the country's risk management strategy. They also show that the country's external debt structure is not well balanced to hedge the foreign exchange risk from the existing composition of non-U.S. dollar-denominated liabilities. The debt portfolio contains an excess of Japanese yen - and Deutschemark - denominated liabilities, while liabilities denominated in British pounds are substantially underrepresented.

Suggested Citation

  • Coleman, Jonathan R. & Ying Qian, 1991. "Managing financial risks in Papua New Guinea : an optimal external debt portfolio," Policy Research Working Paper Series 739, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:739
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May.
    2. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Claessens, Stijn, 1991. "Optimal dynamic hedging portfolios and the currency composition of external debt," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 131-148, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ying Qian & Duncan, Ronald & DEC, 1994. "Optimal hedging strategy revisited : acknowledging the existence of nonstationary economic timeseries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1279, The World Bank.

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