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Advanced-country policies and emerging-market currencies : the impact of U.S. tapering on India's Rupee

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  • Ikeda,Yuki
  • Medvedev,Denis
  • Rama,Martin G.

Abstract

The global financial crisis and its aftermath have triggered extraordinary policy responses in advanced countries. The impacts of these policy responses?from asset price bubbles to currency depreciations?have often been felt in the developing world. As tapering talk evolves into actual withdrawal of quantitative easing in the United States, and as the Euro Zone launches its own quantitative easing program, there are good reasons to be concerned about the financial stability of emerging economies. India's experience with U.S. tapering offers insights into what to expect. This paper estimates the contribution of external and domestic factors to short-term fluctuations in the value of the Indian rupee between 2004 and 2014, using a rich dynamic model that controls for a large number of exchange rate determinants. The paper finds that a global surprise factor, more than domestic vulnerabilities, was the main driver of the large rupee depreciation in summer 2013. With the surprise factor gone, further normalization of U.S. monetary policy is unlikely to have significant effects on the rupee exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Ikeda,Yuki & Medvedev,Denis & Rama,Martin G., 2015. "Advanced-country policies and emerging-market currencies : the impact of U.S. tapering on India's Rupee," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7219, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7219
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Samuelson, Paul A, 1994. "Facets of Balassa-Samuelson Thirty Years Later," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 201-226, October.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    7. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2021. "What Drove the First Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic? The Role of Institutions and Leader Attributes," MPRA Paper 110563, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Keywords

    Economic Theory&Research; Debt Markets; Currencies and Exchange Rates; Economic Stabilization; Emerging Markets;
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