Intertemporal substitution, risk aversion, and private savings in Mexico

The decline in private savings since 1982 is arguably the most important problem in high debt countries. A reversal of the trend is essential if growth is to be restored. Three factors predominate : 1) the extent of intertemporal substitution; 2) attitudes toward risk; and 3) private/public savings interaction. These factors lie at the core of the authors'research. They test the issue of debt neutrality - whether future taxes are recognized as an offset for the value of any government debt held - and the response of private savings to real interest rates and uncertainty. The authors estimated two configurations of a joint portfolio-choice/savings model. First, they included equity, domestic bonds, and flight capital. In the second configuration they eliminated flight capital. The authors conclusions include the following : i) the intertemporal approach to consumption is supported by the data; ii) the results imply rejection of the traditional, expected utility approach; iii) risk aversion is significant but lower than many have argued from analysis of static versions of the capital asset pricing model; iv) results on the intertemporal substitution elasticity are much weaker; and v) domestic government bonds probably are considered as part of private wealth, although significantly less than one for one, thus rejecting debt neutrality.