IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/6013.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Achieving the MDGs in Yemen : an assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Al-Batuly, Abdulmajeed
  • Al-Hawri, Mohamed
  • Cicowiez, Martin
  • Lofgren, Hans
  • Pournik, Mohammad

Abstract

Once the current political crisis in Yemen has been resolved, it will be ever more urgent to speed up progress, including Millennium Development Goal (MDG) achievements. Drawing on simulations with the Maquette for MDG Simulations (MAMS), a model for strategy analysis, and a linked microsimulation model, this paper addresses Yemen's MDG challenges. A first simulation set considers scaled-up government actions with the aim of fully achieving the 2015 international MDG targets with required additional financing from foreign or domestic sources. The main finding is sobering but not surprising: given the required expansion of MDG -- related services, on-time achievement of key MDG targets does not appear to have been a realistic objective even if the government, hypothetically, would have expanded services with grant aid financing starting from 2005; macroeconomic stability, government efficiency, and the production of tradables would all have suffered due to the size of spending and aid increases as well as the resulting real exchange rate appreciation. The results suggest that countries, instead of relying on international targets, should set MDG targets grounded in their own reality. In light of these results, the authors designed a second simulation set that is focused on the remaining period up to 2015, and on what may be feasible once the current conflict has been settled. The simulations introduce moderate increases in foreign aid or government allocative efficiency. The government uses the resulting fiscal space for spending and service expansion in infrastructure and human development without losses in productive efficiency. The results suggest that, under these conditions, substantial improvements could still be achieved.

Suggested Citation

  • Al-Batuly, Abdulmajeed & Al-Hawri, Mohamed & Cicowiez, Martin & Lofgren, Hans & Pournik, Mohammad, 2012. "Achieving the MDGs in Yemen : an assessment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6013, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2012/03/26/000158349_20120326090309/Rendered/PDF/WPS6013.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "The Wage Curve," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026202375x, April.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Analyzing Fiscal Space Using the MAMS Model - An Application to Burkina Faso," IMF Working Papers 2009/227, International Monetary Fund.
    3. repec:bla:devpol:v:23:y:2005:i:3:p:267-283 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. François Bourguignon & Mark Sundberg, 2006. "Absorptive Capacity and Achieving the MDGs," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2006-47, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. World Bank, 2006. "Tracking Basic Education Expenditure in Yemen : Analyses of Public Resource Management and Teacher Absenteeism," World Bank Publications - Reports 8156, The World Bank Group.
    6. Al-Batuly, Abdulmajeed & Al-Hawri, Mohamed & Cicowiez, Martin & Lofgren, Hans & Pournik, Mohammad, 2012. "Achieving the MDGs in Yemen : an assessment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6013, The World Bank.
    7. Easterly, William, 2009. "How the Millennium Development Goals are Unfair to Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 26-35, January.
    8. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Mastruzzi, Massimo, 2010. "The worldwide governance indicators : methodology and analytical issues," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5430, The World Bank.
    9. World Bank, 2010. "World Development Indicators 2010," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 4373.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rob Vos & Marco V. Sánchez & Cornelia Kaldewei, 2010. "Latin America and the Caribbean’s challenge to reach the MDGs: financing options and trade-offs," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Marco V. Sánchez & Rob Vos & Enrique Ganuza & Hans Lofgren & Carolina Díaz-Bonilla (ed.), Public Policies for Human Development, chapter 2, pages 17-69, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Lofgren, Hans & Cicowiez, Martin & Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina, 2013. "MAMS – A Computable General Equilibrium Model for Developing Country Strategy Analysis," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 159-276, Elsevier.
    3. Abdulmajeed Al-Batuly & Mohamed Al-Hawri & Martin Cicowiez & Hans Lofgren & Mohammad Pournik, 2012. "Achieving the MDGs in Yemen. An Assessment," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0131, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lofgren, Hans & Cicowiez, Martin & Diaz-Bonilla, Carolina, 2013. "MAMS – A Computable General Equilibrium Model for Developing Country Strategy Analysis," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 159-276, Elsevier.
    2. Morrissey, Oliver & Udomkerdmongkol, Manop, 2012. "Governance, Private Investment and Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 437-445.
    3. Maria Lo Bue & Stephan Klasen, 2013. "Identifying Synergies and Complementarities Between MDGs: Results from Cluster Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 647-670, September.
    4. Benczes, István & Rezessy, Gergely, 2013. "Governance in Europe, Trends and Fault Lines," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 58(2), pages 133-147.
    5. Eiji Yamamura, 2013. "Public sector corruption and the probability of technological disasters," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 233-255, August.
    6. Katsushi S. Imai & Raghav Gaiha & Ganesh Thapa, 2011. "Role of Agriculture in Achieving MDG 1 in Asia and the Pacific Region," Discussion Paper Series DP2011-01, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    7. Bergh, Andreas & Mirkina, Irina & Nilsson, Therese, 2013. "More Open – Better Governed? Evidence from High- and Low-income Countries," Working Paper Series 997, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    8. Andreas Bergh & Irina Mirkina & Therese Nilsson, 2014. "Globalization and Institutional Quality-A Panel Data Analysis," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 365-394, September.
    9. Ellyne, Mark & Chater, Rachel, 2013. "Exchange Controls and SADC Regional Integration: Measuring SADC Restrictiveness," MPRA Paper 58649, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Cherchye, Laurens & Verriest, Arnt, 2016. "The impact of home-country institutions and competition on firm profitability," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 831-846.
    11. Katharina Stepping, 2012. "Do poor health conditions lead to higher allocation of development assistance?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201230, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    12. Joshi, Devin K. & Hughes, Barry B. & Sisk, Timothy D., 2015. "Improving Governance for the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals: Scenario Forecasting the Next 50years," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 286-302.
    13. Anil V. Mishra & Umaru B. Conteh, 2014. "Australia's Bond Home Bias," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(01), pages 1-30.
    14. Sofien Tiba & Mohamed Frikha, 2020. "Sustainability Challenge in the Agenda of African Countries: Evidence from Simultaneous Equations Models," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 11(3), pages 1270-1294, September.
    15. Ellyne, Mark & Chater, Rachel, 2013. "Exchange Control and SADC Regional Integration," MPRA Paper 46648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Li, Aijun & Du, Nan & Wei, Qian, 2014. "The cross-country implications of alternative climate policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 155-163.
    17. Mehmet Maksud Onal & John K. Ashton, 2021. "Is the Journey more Important than the Destination? EU Accession and Corporate Governance and Performance of Banks," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(6), pages 1516-1535, November.
    18. Das Gupta, Monica & Bongaarts, John & Cleland, John, 2011. "Population, poverty, and sustainable development : a review of the evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5719, The World Bank.
    19. Kapeliushnikov, Rostislav & Kuznetsov, Andrei & Demina, Natalia & Kuznetsova, Olga, 2013. "Threats to security of property rights in a transition economy: An empirical perspective," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 245-264.
    20. Hermann, Zoltán, 2005. "A helyi munkaerőpiac hatása a középfokú továbbtanulási döntésekre [The local labour markets effect on decisions to enter secondary-level education]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 39-60.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Theory&Research; Population Policies; Debt Markets; Emerging Markets; Public Sector Economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.