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Population size, concentration, and civil war : a geographically disaggregated analysis

Author

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  • Hegre, Havard
  • Raleigh, Clionadh

Abstract

Why do larger countries have more armed conflict? This paper surveys three sets of hypotheses forwarded in the conflict literature regarding the relationship between the size and location of population groups: Hypotheses based on pure population mass, on distances, on population concentrations, and some residual state-level characteristics. The hypotheses are tested on a new dataset-ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and Events Dataset)-which disaggregates internal conflicts into individual events. The analysis covers 14 countries in Central Africa. The conflict event data are juxtaposed with geographically disaggregated data on populations, distance to capitals, borders, and road networks. The paper develops a statistical method to analyze this type of data. The analysis confirms several of the hypotheses.

Suggested Citation

  • Hegre, Havard & Raleigh, Clionadh, 2007. "Population size, concentration, and civil war : a geographically disaggregated analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4243, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4243
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wagschal Uwe & Metz Thomas, 2016. "A Demographic Peace? Youth Bulges and Other Population-Related Causes of Domestic Conflict," Statistics, Politics and Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1-2), pages 55-97, December.
    2. Matthew Fuhrmann & Jaroslav Tir, 2009. "Territorial Dimensions of Enduring Internal Rivalries," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 26(4), pages 307-329, September.
    3. Steve Pickering, 2016. "Introducing SpatialGridBuilder: A new system for creating geo-coded datasets," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 33(4), pages 423-447, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population Policies; Social Conflict and Violence; Demographics; Country Population Profiles; Health Indicators;
    All these keywords.

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