IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/1683.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

High real interest rates, guarantor risk, and bank recapitalizations

Author

Listed:
  • Brock, Philip L.

Abstract

The author sets out a methodology for analyzing episodes of high real interest rates in emerging market economies. He reviews the literature on what determines spreads in deposit rates and loan rates. Then he links the causes of interest rate spreads by explicitly modeling the incentive effect of a government deposit guarantee on the behavior of depositories, banks, and firms. The premise: begin with accounting identities that decompose the deposit spread and loan spread into several components. The relative importance of the components can be measured to discover the sources of the high real rates. The results suggest that the expected exchange rate depreciation and credit quality of borrowers are among the most important determinants of high real rates. A government guarantee on deposits affects both the deposit and the loan spread by altering marginal incentives. Although high real rates may signal financial distress, standard recapitulation mechanisms may not improve the situation. The behavior of real interest rates depends on the account unit that has been chosen for financial transaction. High real interest rates often occur when an economy is close to widespread debtor default. If high real interest rates are a financial sector distress symptom, then high real rates will incorporate expectations of a breakdown in the government's enforcement of financial contracts, in addition to other factors the author addresses.

Suggested Citation

  • Brock, Philip L., 1996. "High real interest rates, guarantor risk, and bank recapitalizations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1683, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:1683
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/1996/11/01/000009265_3970311114930/Rendered/PDF/multi_page.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1994. "Stabilization dynamics and backward-looking contracts," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 59-84, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:idb:brikps:377 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francisco Venegas-Martinez, 2006. "Impacto de una Politica Fiscal incierta y del riesgo cambiario en estrategias de estabilizacion de precios," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Negocios, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 2(2), pages 3-33, Enero-Jun.
    2. Venegas-Martinez, Francisco, 2006. "Stochastic temporary stabilization: Undiversifiable devaluation and income risks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 157-173, January.
    3. Lahiri, Amartya, 2001. "Exchange rate based stabilizations under real frictions: The role of endogenous labor supply," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1157-1177, August.
    4. Reinhart, Carmen & Vegh, Carlos, 1994. "Inflation stabilization in chronic inflation countries: The empirical evidence," MPRA Paper 13689, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 837-880, September.
    6. Christine Richaud & AristomEne Varoudakis & Marie-Ange VEganzonEs, 2003. "Real exchange rate and openness in emerging economies: Argentina in the long run," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 293-303.
    7. Fugazza, Marco & Fiess, Norbert M. & Maloney, William, 2002. "Exchange rate appreciations, labor market rigidities, and informality," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2771, The World Bank.
    8. Enrique Alberola & Luis Molina, 2003. "What Does Really Discipline Fiscal Policy in Emerging Markets?: the Role and Dynamics of Exchange Rate Regimes," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 165-192, July-Dece.
    9. Gerardo Licandro & José Antonio Licandro, 2003. "Building the Dedollarization Agenda: Lessons from the Uruguayan Case," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 193-218, July-Dece.
    10. Emine Boz, 2009. "Can Miracles Lead to Crises? The Role of Optimism in Emerging Markets Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1189-1215, September.
    11. Álvaro Rojas O. & Felipe Jaque S., 2003. "Determinants of the Chilean Sovereign Spread: is it Purely Fundamentals?," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 137-163, July-Dece.
    12. Tamara Burdisso & Verónica Cohen Sabban & Laura D'Amato, 2003. "The Argentine Banking and Exchange Crisis of 2001: Can we Learn Something New About Financial Crisis?," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 89-136, July-Dece.
    13. Steven B. Kamin, 1996. "Real exchange rates and inflation in exchange-rate based stabilizations: an empirical examination," International Finance Discussion Papers 554, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Végh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 125-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Alejandro Rodríguez Arana, 2004. "Dinámica macroeconómica y la curva de Philips bajo diversos supuestos sobre el mecanismo de ajuste salarial," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 19(2), pages 181-210.
    16. Lahiri, Amartya, 2000. "Disinflation programs under policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 351-373, April.
    17. Gerardo Licandro & José Antonio Licandro, 2001. "Anatomía y patología de la dolarización," Documentos de trabajo 2001003, Banco Central del Uruguay, revised Dec 2001.
    18. Venegas-Martinez, Francisco, 2001. "Temporary stabilization: A stochastic analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1429-1449, September.
    19. Mr. Guillermo Calvo & Mr. Michael Kumhof & Oya Celasun, 2002. "Nominal Exchange Rate Anchoring Under Inflation Inertia," IMF Working Papers 2002/030, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Calvo, Guillermo & Celasun, Oya & Kumhof, Michael, 2007. "Inflation inertia and credible disinflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 48-68, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:1683. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.