Climate Policies are Path-Dependent : Implications for Policy Sequencing and Feasibility

Although the feasibility of introducing climate policies underpins global efforts to curb climate change, there has been limited analysis estimating the likelihood of introducing specific policies in different country contexts. Drawing on a dataset of climate policies introduced globally over the past 50 years, this paper explores patterns in climate policy adoption to quantify policy feasibility across countries. In constructing a ‘Climate Policy Space’ network based on the co-occurrence of policies across countries, the paper shows that climate policy adoption is path-dependent: countries are significantly more likely to introduce policies that are related to their prior climate policymaking experience. Exploiting this finding, the paper constructs empirically validated ‘Climate Policy Feasibility Frontiers’ which identify policies that are likely to be more feasible and could also increase the probability of the adoption of other policies. Complementing traditional cost-benefit analysis, feasibility frontiers can inform more realistic and strategic climate policy prioritization across countries.