Clean Tech Manufacturing Opportunities in Central and Eastern Europe : Export and Investment Implications

The transition to a low-carbon economy requires an expansion in the production of clean energy technologies. Recent shifts in the European Union’s industrial policy aim to boost local manufacturing and attract clean technology production to Europe. This paper uses a data-driven scenario approach to explore how such onshoring efforts could create economic opportunities in four Central and Eastern European countries—Bulgaria, Croatia, Poland, and Romania—across five key clean tech value chains: electric vehicle batteries, solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, heat pumps, and electrolyzers. If the European Union achieves the targets in its Net Zero Industry Act to source a larger share of these products domestically by 2030, all four countries have opportunities to grow production across value chains and their segments, with a particular focus on electromobility. Poland stands out with the highest export potential and investment requirements in absolute terms, while Bulgaria and Croatia demonstrate greater potential relative to the size of their economies.