Estimating Extinction Threats with Species Occurrence Data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility

The world is experiencing a severe loss of biodiversity, highlighting the need for a strong global conservation strategy. Effective conservation depends on accurate information about where endangered species live and the local threats they face. Using data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, this paper creates threat and protection indicators for more than 600,000 species, including animals, plants, and fungi. The indicators include habitat size, level of protection, nearby population density, and specific threats like population encroachment for land species and fishing activity for marine species. The paper then uses an ordered logit model to analyze the relationship between these indicators and the extinction risk categories assigned by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. The model is based on 87,731 species in the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database that have been assessed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. The results are used to predict threat levels for 512,675 species without International Union for Conservation of Nature ratings, revealing many more potentially threatened species and changing the maps of “conservation hotspots.” The paper concludes by noting that its methods can support rapid updates of species maps and threat indicators as the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database continues to grow.