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Moving to Adaptation ? Understanding the Migratory Response to Hurricanes in the United States

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  • Behrer,Arnold Patrick
  • Bolotnyy,Valentin

Abstract

Using data on the paths of all hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin from 1992 to 2017, this paper studies whether migration has served as a form of adaptation to hurricane risk. The findings show that on average hurricanes have little to no impact on county out-migration, with population-weighted exposure to hurricanes increasing slightly over the sample period. Counties with high economic activity see net in-migration in the years after a hurricane. Further, return migration likely plays a role in offsetting any out-migration in the year of the storm. The intensity of pre-hurricane migration between county pairs is a strong predictor of excess migration after a hurricane, suggesting that existing economic and social ties dominate in post-hurricane migration decisions. Given existing policies and incentives, the economic and social benefits that people derive from living in high-risk areas currently outweigh the incentive to adapt to future storms by relocating across counties.

Suggested Citation

  • Behrer,Arnold Patrick & Bolotnyy,Valentin, 2023. "Moving to Adaptation ? Understanding the Migratory Response to Hurricanes in the United States," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10528, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10528
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Solomon M. Hsiang & Daiju Narita, 2012. "Adaptation To Cyclone Risk: Evidence From The Global Cross-Section," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 1-28.
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