World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update 2010, Volume 2 : Robust Recovery, Rising Risks

Output has recovered to above pre-crisis levels throughout developing East Asia and, in some countries, is expanding at near pre-crisis rates. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is likely to rise 8.9 percent in the region in 2010, up from 7.3 percent in 2009 and in line with the average growth rate during 2000-08. Economic expansion is projected to slow to about 7.8 percent in 2011, as spare capacity becomes scarce, fiscal and monetary stimulus measures are gradually unwound, and economic growth in the advanced economies remains relatively flat. Encouragingly, the private sector is once again becoming the engine of growth, confidence is returning, and trade flows have returned to pre-crisis levels. But the recovery so far has generated little incremental manufacturing employment in some of the middle-income countries. With output gaps closing rapidly and private investment recovering strongly, the authorities in most East Asian countries are unwinding their stimulus measures. Finally, a more consistent application of policy incentives for investment and growth across space is called for, especially recognizing China's unique combination of fiscal decentralization and centralized government structure. Extending preferential policies related to taxation and deregulation further inland, broadening the access to credit, and standardizing basic health and education services across provinces will greatly level the playing field in favor of the inland provinces, improving both equity and growth.