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Uncertainty about children's survival and fertility : a test using Indian microdata

Author

Listed:
  • Atella, Vincenzo
  • Rosati, Furio Camillo

Abstract

The authors present a non-altruistic model of demand for children, in the presence of uncertainty about children's survival. Children are seen as assets, as they provide help during old age. If certain conditions are met, both the financial market, and the family network are used to transfer resources to old age. Theoretical predictions relative to the change in the mean, and variance of the survival rate are derived. The empirical analysis is based on data from the Human Development of India (HDI) Survey. Different models for count variables, such as Poisson, Hurdle, and ZI models have been employed in the empirical analysis. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainty about children's survival in determining parental choices, thus showing that realized, or expected children'sdeath, is not the only dimension that links fertility decision to children's mortality. The policy implications of such findings are briefly discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Atella, Vincenzo & Rosati, Furio Camillo, 1999. "Uncertainty about children's survival and fertility : a test using Indian microdata," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 21334, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:21334
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    Cited by:

    1. Marwân-al-Qays Bousmah, 2017. "The effect of child mortality on fertility behaviors is non-linear: new evidence from Senegal," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 93-113, March.
    2. Wiji Arulampalam & Sonia Bhalotra, 2004. "Inequality in Infant Survival Rates in India: Identification of State-Dependence Effects," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 04/558, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    3. F. Rosati & M. Rossi, 2001. "Children's Working Hours, School Enrolment and Human Capital Accumulation: Evidence from Pakistan and Nicaragua," UCW Working Paper 8, Understanding Children's Work (UCW Programme).
    4. Muhammad Zakaria & Bashir Ahmed Fida & Saquib Yousaf Janjua & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2017. "Fertility and Financial Development in South Asia," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 645-668, September.
    5. Jenna Nobles & Elizabeth Frankenberg & Duncan Thomas, 2014. "The Effects of Mortality on Fertility: Population Dynamics after a Natural Disaster," NBER Working Papers 20448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Sulekha Hembram & Sushil Kr. Haldar, 2019. "Beta, sigma and club convergence: Indian experience from 1980 to 2015," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 343-366, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Youth and Governance; Health Monitoring&Evaluation; Population&Development; Environmental Economics&Policies; Adolescent Health;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior

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