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The Role of Risk Aversion and Uncertainty in Individual's Migration Decision

Author

Listed:
  • Tan Wang
  • Tony Wirjanto

    (Department of Economics, University of Waterloo)

Abstract

Building on recent advances in the theory of the optimal timing of investment under uncertainty, this paper proposes a stylized theoretical model to study an individual's optimal migration strategy. It shows that, as a result of following the optimal strategy, the individual may choose to delay the migration when the condition appears to be favorable, giving rise to so-called waiting phenomenon observed in the data for Germany following the unification. Using the closed-form solution obtained, it also examines how the duration of the waiting phenomenon is affected by a number of economic factors such as uncertainty with respect to income in Western Germany, the individual's attitude toward risk, etc.

Suggested Citation

  • Tan Wang & Tony Wirjanto, 1997. "The Role of Risk Aversion and Uncertainty in Individual's Migration Decision," Working Papers 98003, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Nov 1997.
    • Handle: RePEc:wat:wpaper:98003
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    Cited by:

    1. Mahmudul Anam & Shin-Hwan Chiang & Lieng Hua, 2008. "Uncertainty and International Migration: An Option Cum Portfolio Model," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 236-250, September.
    2. Tan Wang & Tony S. Wirjanto, 2013. "Uncertainty, Unemployment Insurance, Individual's Optimal Stopping Time and Duration of Unemployment," Working Paper series 31_13, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.

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