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A Reality Check on Hedge Funds Returns

Author

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  • Posthuma, Nolke

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculteit der Economische Wetenschappen en Econometrie (Free University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics Sciences, Business Administration and Economitrics)

  • Sluis, Pieter Jelle van der

Abstract

In this article we examine the backfill bias or instant history bias for hedge funds using additional information from the Tass database. This is information about the exact date a hedge fund starts to reporting to Tass. Using this information we are able to reveal the length of the instant histories. We find these to be just over 3 years on average. This number is far greater than previously documented. More than half of the recorded returns in the database are backfilled. The magnitude of the overall backfill bias is about 4 percent per annum on average. Again this number exceeds all previous estimates of the backfill bias we are aware of. We elaborate further across different time periods styles. Next, we eliminate backfilled returns and use survivorship free data to create a universe in which we could invest in real time. We introduce an investor who invests an equal amount in each fund that is in the universe. Conditional on this investment strategy our results indicate that the backfill bias is underestimated, and has a substantial downward effect on the returns across most hedge fund styles and is consistent over time for the whole sample. We have no reasons to believe that our conclusions are limited to the Tass database.

Suggested Citation

  • Posthuma, Nolke & Sluis, Pieter Jelle van der, 2003. "A Reality Check on Hedge Funds Returns," Serie Research Memoranda 0017, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    • Handle: RePEc:vua:wpaper:2003-17
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rui J. P. de Figueiredo, Jr. & Evan Rawley, 2011. "Skill, Luck, and the Multiproduct Firm: Evidence from Hedge Funds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(11), pages 1963-1978, November.
    2. Arjen Siegmann & Denitsa Stefanova, 2011. "Market Liquidity and Exposure of Hedge Funds," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-150/2/DSF27, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Yang, Fan & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Novak, Jiri, 2022. "Hedge Fund Performance: A Quantitative Survey," EconStor Preprints 260612, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. Yang, Fan & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Novak, Jiri, 2024. "Where Have All the Alphas Gone? A Meta-Analysis of Hedge Fund Performance," EconStor Preprints 289497, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    5. Tomáš Jeřábek, 2009. "Hedge Funds and Their Performance Between 1994 and 2008 [Hedgeové fondy a jejich výkonnost v období 1994-2008]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2009(1), pages 51-65.
    6. Agarwal, Vikas & Fos, Vyacheslav & Jiang, Wei, 2010. "Inferring reporting biases in hedge fund databases from hedge fund equity holdings," CFR Working Papers 10-08, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    7. Platanakis, Emmanouil & Sakkas, Athanasios & Sutcliffe, Charles, 2019. "Harmful diversification: Evidence from alternative investments," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 1-23.
    8. Willi Semmler & Raphaele Chappe, 2012. "Ponzi Finance And The Hedge Fund Industry," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(supp0), pages 1-25.
    9. Rania Hentati-Kaffel & Philippe de Peretti, 2014. "Detecting Performance Persistence of Hedge Funds : A Runs-Based Analysis," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00984777, HAL.
    10. Rania Hentati-Kaffel & Philippe de Peretti, 2014. "Detecting Performance Persistence of Hedge Funds : A Runs-Based Analysis," Working Papers hal-00984777, HAL.
    11. Roger Ibbotson & Peng Chen, 2005. "The A,B,Cs of Hedge Funds: Alphas, Betas, and Costs," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2597, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Sep 2005.
    12. Hoevenaars, Roy P.M.M. & Molenaar, Roderick D.J. & Schotman, Peter C. & Steenkamp, Tom B.M., 2008. "Strategic asset allocation with liabilities: Beyond stocks and bonds," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 2939-2970, September.
    13. Felix Goltz & Lionel Martellini & Mathieu Vaissié, 2007. "Hedge Fund Indices: Reconciling Investability and Representativity," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(2), pages 257-286, March.
    14. Auer, Benjamin R., 2014. "Should hedge funds be cautious reporting high returns?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 195-201.
    15. Geetesh Bhardwaj & Gary Gorton & K. Rouwenhorst, 2008. "Fooling Some of the People All of the Time: The Inefficient Performance and Persistence of Commodity Trading Advisors," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2429, Yale School of Management.
    16. Willi Semmler & Raphaële Chappe, 2011. "The Operation of Hedge Funds: Econometric Evidence, Dynamic Modeling, and Regulatory Perspectives," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Greg N. Gregoriou & Razvan Pascalau (ed.), Financial Econometrics Modeling: Derivatives Pricing, Hedge Funds and Term Structure Models, chapter 1, pages 3-34, Palgrave Macmillan.
    17. Agarwal, Vikas & Ruenzi, Stefan & Weigert, Florian, 2017. "Tail risk in hedge funds: A unique view from portfolio holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 610-636.
    18. Morag I. Torrance, 2007. "The Power of Governance in Financial Relationships: Governing Tensions in Exotic Infrastructure Territory," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 671-695, December.
    19. Roger Ibbotson & Peng Chen, 2005. "The A,B,Cs of Hedge Funds: Alphas, Betas, and Costs," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2597, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Sep 2005.
    20. Geetesh Bhardwaj & Gary B. Gorton & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2008. "Fooling Some of the People All of the Time: The Inefficient Performance and Persistence of Commodity Trading Advisors," NBER Working Papers 14424, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Edelman, Daniel & Fung, William & Hsieh, David A., 2013. "Exploring uncharted territories of the hedge fund Industry: Empirical characteristics of mega hedge fund firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 734-758.
    22. Benjamin Auer, 2013. "The low return distortion of the Sharpe ratio," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 27(3), pages 299-306, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Backfill bias; Hedge funds; Performance persistence; Self-selection bias;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G29 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Other

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