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Modelización econométrica de la demanda de turistas británicos a España

Author

Listed:
  • Marcos Álvarez-Díaz
  • Manuel González-Gómez
  • María Soledad Otero-Giráldez
  • Ana Belén Trigo Iglesias

Abstract

A pesar de la importancia del turismo internacional para la economía española, este sector ha sido muy poco estudiado. Es por esta razón que el principal objetivo de nuestro estudio es el de construir un modelo econométrico robusto que nos permita (i) conocer las variables más importantes que expliquen la demanda de turistas británicos a España, y (ii) cuantificar los impactos de estas variables sobre la demanda. Para este propósito seguimos un procedimiento de modelización econométrica basado en tres etapas. En la primera de ellas investigamos si existe una relación a largo plazo entre la demanda de turismo y un conjunto de variables explicativas económicas. En segundo lugar, modelizamos esta relación a largo plazo en donde también incluimos los efectos de algunos eventos especiales. Finalmente, ofrecemos una estimación puntual y por intervalo de los impactos de estos efectos sobre el turismo británico. La estimación por intervalo fue llevada a cabo utilizando un método eficiente denominado bootstrapping. ABSTRACT In spite of the importance of international tourism for the Spanish economy, this sector has been scarcely studied. It is for this reason that this study aims to construct a robust econometric model that allows us (i) to know the most important variables to explain the British demand for tourism to Spain, and (ii) to quantify the impacts of these variables on the demand. For this purpose, we follow a three-step modeling procedure. First, we find out if there is a long-run relationship between tourism demand and a set of economic explanatory variables. Second, we model such long-run relationship where we include the effect of some special events. Third, we not only study the effect of these variables, but also we offer a point and interval estimation of their effects. The interval estimation is done by using an efficient method called bootstrapping.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcos Álvarez-Díaz & Manuel González-Gómez & María Soledad Otero-Giráldez & Ana Belén Trigo Iglesias, 2014. "Modelización econométrica de la demanda de turistas británicos a España," Working Papers 1404, Universidade de Vigo, Departamento de Economía Aplicada.
    • Handle: RePEc:vig:wpaper:1404
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Modelización de la Demanda Turística; Modelo ARDL; Bootstrap; Tourism Demand Modelling; ARDL Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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