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The Role of Economic News in Predicting Suicides

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Moscone

    (Brunel University London; Ca' Foscari University of Venice)

  • Elisa Tosetti

    (University of Padua)

  • Giorgio Vittadini

    (University of Milano-Bicocca)

Abstract

In this paper we explore the role of media and language used to comment on economic news in explaining and anticipating suicides in England and Wales. This is an interesting question, given the large delay in the release of official statistics on suicides. We use a large data set of over 200,000 news articles published in six major UK newspapers from 2001 to 2015 and carry sentiment analysis of the language used to comment on economic news. We extract daily indicators measuring a set of negative emotions that are often associated with poor mental health and use them to explain and forecast national daily suicide figures. We find that highly negative comments on the economic situation in newspaper articles are predictors of higher suicide numbers, especially when using words conveying stronger emotions of fear and despair. Our results suggest that media language carrying very strong, negative feelings may be an early signal of a deterioration in a population's mental health.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Moscone & Elisa Tosetti & Giorgio Vittadini, 2023. "The Role of Economic News in Predicting Suicides," Working Papers 2023: 32, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    • Handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2023:32
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    suicide; health outcomes; text analysis; emotions extraction; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development

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