IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ven/wpaper/201719.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

To what extent will climate and land-use change affect EU-28 agriculture? A computable general equilibrium analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Martina Sartori

    (Department of Economics, University Of Venice CÃ Foscari and Bocconi University)

  • Davide Geneletti

    (University of Trento, Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering)

  • Stefano Schiavo

    (University of Trento, Department of Economics and Management and School of International Studies)

  • Rocco Scolozzi

    (University of Trento, Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering)

Abstract

This paper assesses the structural, joint implications of climate and land-use change on agriculture in the European Union, by means of a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. The counterfactual simulations are conducted at the year 2050 under the second Shared Socioeconomic Pathway. We find that climate and land-use change are likely to affect agricultural systems very differently across Europe. Northern countries are expected to benefit from climate change impacts, whereas other areas in Europe will suffer negative consequences in terms of reduced agricultural output, real income and welfare. The most vulnerable region is not made of Mediterranean countries, but rather Central Europe. Our results suggest that climate and land-use changes may exacerbate existing disparities within the EU. Therefore, appropriate adaptation strategies and a more flexible land-use are required to limit these negative consequences and possibly exploit the beneficial effects of climate change in some countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Martina Sartori & Davide Geneletti & Stefano Schiavo & Rocco Scolozzi, 2017. "To what extent will climate and land-use change affect EU-28 agriculture? A computable general equilibrium analysis," Working Papers 2017:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    • Handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2017:19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.unive.it/web/fileadmin/user_upload/dipartimenti/DEC/doc/Pubblicazioni_scientifiche/working_papers/2017/WP_DSE_sartori_et_al_19_17.pdf
    File Function: First version, anno
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2005. "Will U.S. Agriculture Really Benefit from Global Warming? Accounting for Irrigation in the Hedonic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 395-406, March.
    2. Hermans, C.M.L. & Geijzendorffer, I.R. & Ewert, F. & Metzger, M.J. & Vereijken, P.H. & Woltjer, G.B. & Verhagen, A., 2010. "Exploring the future of European crop production in a liberalised market, with specific consideration of climate change and the regional competitiveness," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(18), pages 2177-2187.
    3. Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2016. "Estimation of Climate Change Damage Functions for 140 Regions in the GTAP 9 Database," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 1(2), pages 78-115, December.
    4. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    5. Thomas W. Hertel & Stephanie D. Rosch, 2010. "Climate Change, Agriculture, and Poverty," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 32(3), pages 355-385.
    6. Arndt, Channing, 1996. "An Introduction To Systematic Sensitivity Analysis Via Gaussian Quadrature," Technical Papers 28709, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2015. "System-Wide Implications of Changing Water Availability and Agricultural Productivity in the Mediterranean Economies," Water Economics and Policy (WEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 1-30.
    8. Richter, G.M. & Semenov, M.A., 2005. "Modelling impacts of climate change on wheat yields in England and Wales: assessing drought risks," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 77-97, April.
    9. William R. Cline, 2007. "Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4037, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dudu, Hasan & Ferrari, Emanuele & Mainar, Alfredo & Sartori, Martina, 2018. "Economy-wide impact of changing water availability in Senegal: an application of the JRC.DEMETRA CGE model," Conference papers 332934, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martina Sartori & Davide Geneletti & Stefano Schiavo & Rocco Scolozzi, 2017. "The impact of climate and land use change on agriculture in EU28: A computable general equilibrium analysis," EcoMod2017 10420, EcoMod.
    2. Balistreri, Edward J. & Tarr, David G., 2011. "Services Liberalization in Preferential Trade Arrangements: The Case of Kenya," Conference papers 332152, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Birthal, P.S. & Negi, Digvijay S. & Kumar, Shiv & Aggarwal, Shaily & Suresh, A. & Khan, Md. Tajuddin, 2014. "How Sensitive is Indian Agriculture to Climate Change?," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 69(4), pages 1-14.
    4. Arellano Gonzalez, Jesus, 2018. "Estimating climate change damages in data scarce and non-competitive settings: a novel version of the Ricardian approach with an application to Mexico," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274010, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Jesse Tack & Ardian Harri & Keith Coble, 2012. "More than Mean Effects: Modeling the Effect of Climate on the Higher Order Moments of Crop Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1037-1054.
    6. Fisher, Anthony, 2014. "Climate Science and Climate Economics," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt746627gz, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    7. Howard, Peter & Sterner, Thomas, 2014. "Raising the Temperature on Food Prices: Climate Change, Food Security, and the Social Cost of Carbon," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170648, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Fisher, A. C & Le, P. V, 2014. "Climate Policy: Science, Economics, and Extremes," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt6tj3j4jb, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    9. Patrick S. Ward & Raymond J. G. M. Florax & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, 2014. "Climate change and agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa: a spatial sample selection model," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 41(2), pages 199-226.
    10. Zhou, Li & Turvey, Calum G., 2014. "Climate change, adaptation and China's grain production," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 72-89.
    11. Shahzad Alvi & Faisal Jamil & Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2020. "Do Farmers Adapt to Climate Change? A Macro Perspective," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-12, June.
    12. K.S. Kavi Kumar, 2009. "Climate Sensitivity of Indian Agriculture," Working Papers 2009-043, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    13. Mérel, Pierre & Paroissien, Emmanuel & Gammans, Matthew, 2024. "Sufficient statistics for climate change counterfactuals," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    14. Alejandro Lopez-Feldman, 2013. "Climate change, agriculture, and poverty: A household level analysis for rural Mexico," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1126-1139.
    15. Steve Newbold & Charles Griffiths & Christopher C. Moore & Ann Wolverton & Elizabeth Kopits, 2010. "The "Social Cost of Carbon" Made Simple," NCEE Working Paper Series 201007, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Aug 2010.
    16. Fernando M. Aragón & Francisco Oteiza & Juan Pablo Rud, 2018. "Climate change and agriculture: farmer adaptation to extreme heat," IFS Working Papers W18/06, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    17. Sedova, Barbora & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2020. "Who are the climate migrants and where do they go? Evidence from rural India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    18. Roson, Roberto & Damania, Richard, 2016. "Simulating the Macroeconomic Impact of Future Water Scarcity an Assessment of Alternative Scenarios," Conference papers 332687, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    19. Cook, Aaron M. & Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob E. & Sesmero, Juan P., 2013. "How do African households adapt to climate change? Evidence from Malawi," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150507, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Emediegwu, Lotanna E. & Wossink, Ada & Hall, Alastair, 2022. "The impacts of climate change on agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa: A spatial panel data approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural productivity; climate change; land-use change; general equilibrium analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2017:19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sassano Sonia (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dsvenit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.