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Is tourism a spur to economic growth in South Africa: An empirical investigation

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  • Odhiambo, Nicholas M
  • Nyasha, Sheilla

Abstract

In this study, the dynamic Granger-causality between tourism development and economic growth in South Africa was empirically examined during the period 1995-2016. The study was motivated by the growing important role of the tourism sector in economic growth and development. It was also motivated by the limelight that the South African tourism sector has been enjoying in recent years, on the one hand, and the lack of sufficient coverage of tourism-growth nexus studies in many sub-Saharan African countries, on the other hand. Unlike some previous studies that used one proxy, the current study used two tourism proxies, namely tourist arrivals and tourism revenue, to examine this link. In addition, the study used exchange rate and foreign direct investment as intermittent variables in a multivariate Granger-causality model in order to address the omission-of-variable bias. To enhance the robustness of the results, the study also used two measures of tourism revenue, namely total tourism revenue and total tourism revenue as a percentage of GDP. Using the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL)-bounds testing approach and the error correction model, the study found that the direction of causality between tourism development and economic growth in South Africa is sensitive to the proxy used and the time under consideration. When the tourist arrivals variable is used as a proxy for tourism development, bidirectional causality between tourism development and economic growth is found to prevail in the short run, while a unidirectional causality from economic growth to tourism development is found to dominate in the long run. However, when tourism revenue is used as a proxy, a feedback relationship is found to prevail, but only in the short run. The result is robust across the two different measures of tourism revenue. The study, therefore, recommends that short-term policy efforts should be directed at developing the tourism sector and the real sector as both sectors have been found to reinforce each other in the short run, irrespective of the tourism proxy used.

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  • Odhiambo, Nicholas M & Nyasha, Sheilla, 2020. "Is tourism a spur to economic growth in South Africa: An empirical investigation," Working Papers 26731, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uza:wpaper:26731
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    11. Sheilla Nyasha & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2015. "Do banks and stock markets spur economic growth? Kenya's experience," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 54-65.
    12. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2006. "Higher Education, Real Income and Real Investment in China: Evidence From Granger Causality Tests," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 107-125.
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    14. Morley, Bruce, 2006. "Causality between economic growth and immigration: An ARDL bounds testing approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 72-76, January.
    15. Nicholas Odhiambo, 2014. "Energy Dependence in Developing Countries: Does the Level of Income Matter?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 42(1), pages 65-77, March.
    16. Nikolaos Dritsakis, 2004. "Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: An Empirical Investigation for Greece Using Causality Analysis," Tourism Economics, , vol. 10(3), pages 305-316, September.
    17. Nicholas M. Odhiambo & Sheilla Nyasha, 2019. "Does bank-based financial development spur economic growth? Empirical evidence from the Democratic Republic of Congo," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 11(4), pages 378-393.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicholas M. Odhiambo & Talknice Saungweme, "undated". "Does International Tourism Spur International Trade In Ssa Countries? A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers AESRI07, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI).
    2. Olatunji A. Shobande & Simplice A. Asongu, 2021. "Has Knowledge Improved Economic Growth? Evidence from Nigeria and South Africa," Working Papers 21/059, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    3. Sheilla Nyasha & Nicholas M. Odhiambo & Mercy T. Musakwa, 2022. "Bank Development and Unemployment in Kenya: An Empirical Investigation," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 20(2 (Summer), pages 85-107.
    4. Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2021. "Tourism development and poverty alleviation in Sub-Saharan African countries: An empirical investigation," Working Papers 28930, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    5. Nicholas M Odhiambo, 2021. "Tourism Development and Poverty Alleviation in Sub-Saharan African Countries: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers AERI0921, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI).
    6. Nicholas M. Odhiambo, "undated". "Tourism Development And Poverty Alleviation In Sub-Saharan African Countries: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers AESRI09, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI).
    7. Nicholas M. Odhiambo & Talknice Saungweme, "undated". "Does International Tourism Spur International Trade in SSA Countries? A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers AESRIWP08, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI).
    8. N.M. Odhiambo & T. Saungweme, 2021. "Does International Tourism Spur International Trade in SSA Countries? A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers AESRI-2021-08, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI), revised Nov 2021.
    9. A.U. Aimola & N.M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Public Debt and Inflation: Empirical Evidence from Ghana," Working Papers AESRI-2021-06, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI), revised Jan 2021.
    10. S. Nyasha & M.T. Musakwa & N.M. Odhiambo, 2022. "Bank Development and Unemployment in Kenya: An Empirical Investigation," Working Papers AESRI-2022-18, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI), revised Jun 2022.
    11. Odhiambo, Nicholas M & Saungweme, Talknice, 2021. "Does international tourism spur international trade in SSA countries? A dynamic panel data analysis," Working Papers 28345, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.

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