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The US-China Trade Dispute: A Macro Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Rod Tyers

    (Business School, University of Western Australia and Research School of Economics, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA), Australian National University)

  • Yixiao Zhou

    (School of Economics, Finance and Property, Curtin Business School, Curtin University)

Abstract

With the recent rise of populism and authoritarian politics multilateral agreements have been resisted and there are increasing trade disputes, the US-China conflict being a case in point. This paper uses a calibrated global macro model to assess the potential economic consequences of this conflict under explicit assumptions about monetary and fiscal policy. US unilateral protection emerges as “beggar thy neighbor” policy, by most if new tariff revenue affords capital tax relief. China’s proportional losses are large, little mitigated by its retaliation, which nonetheless constrains US net gains. Avoiding leakage by protecting against all sources causes large losses in third regions trading with China and the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2019. "The US-China Trade Dispute: A Macro Perspective," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 19-02, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:19-02
    Note: MD5 = 7cdb32fae5df7bc92f6c19d269d81db6
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    File URL: https://ecompapers.biz.uwa.edu.au/paper/PDF%20of%20Discussion%20Papers/2019/DP%2019.02_Tyers%20and%20Zhou.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Dongseok, 2021. "Measuring the Impact of a Trade Dispute with a Supply-side Shock Using a Supply-driven Input-Output Analysis: Korea-Japan Dispute Case," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 43(1), pages 29-52.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade disputes; China; macroeconomic policy; general equilibrium analysis; numerical theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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