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Medium-Term Macroeconomic Volatility And Economic Development: A New Technique

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  • Sam Tang

    (Business School, University of Western Australia)

Abstract

A key question in development economics is why developing countries as a group experience so much growth volatility. This paper introduces a new technique to measure medium-term macroeconomic volatility that is defined by the trend-growth volatility of output. It shows that medium-term volatility, can be derived by subtracting the average short-term volatility from the total variations of output growth, Applying the new measure to the World Bank’s output data reveals an inverted-U shaped relationship between medium-term volatility and economic development, indicating that economic development is likely to increase trend-growth volatility for developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Sam Tang, 2015. "Medium-Term Macroeconomic Volatility And Economic Development: A New Technique," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 15-29, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:15-29
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