IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uts/wpaper/146.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Keynesian Disequilibrium Dynamics: Convergence, Roads to Instability and the Emergence of Complex Business Fluctuations

Author

Listed:

Abstract

We reformulate the traditional AS-AD growth model of the Neoclassical Synthesis (stage I) with a Taylor policy rule replacing the conventional LM-curve, with gradually adjusting wages as well as prices, and with perfect foresight on current inflation rates and an adaptively revised notion of an inflationary climate in which the economy is operating. We compare this approach with the New Keynesian approach, the Neoclassical Synthesis, stage II, with staggered price and wage setting and find various common components, yet with radically different dynamic implications due to our treatment of the forward-looking part of our wage-price spiral. We show for a system estimate of our model that it implies qualitatively local asymptotic stability and when its estimated form is simulated in response to isolated shocks strongly damped business fluctuations, due to a stable interaction of goods market dynamics with the interest rate policy of the central bank and due to a normal working of a real-wage feedback chain. These results are however endangered – leading in fact to economic breakdown – when there is a global floor to money wage inflation rates. In this case, the return of some money wage flexibility in deep depressions is of help in restoring viability of the model, thereby even avoiding explosive dynamics and the collapse of the economy. This situation leads to viable, but complex business fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Pu Chen & Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Hing Hung, 2006. "Keynesian Disequilibrium Dynamics: Convergence, Roads to Instability and the Emergence of Complex Business Fluctuations," Working Paper Series 146, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:wpaper:146
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.finance.uts.edu.au/research/wpapers/wp146.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pu Chen & Peter Flaschel, 2005. "Keynesian Dynamics and the Wage–Price Spiral: Identifying Downward Rigidities," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 115-142, February.
    2. H. Rose, 1967. "On the Non-Linear Theory of the Employment Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 34(2), pages 153-173.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Asada, Toichiro & Chen, Pu & Chiarella, Carl & Flaschel, Peter, 2006. "Keynesian dynamics and the wage-price spiral: A baseline disequilibrium model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 90-130, March.
    2. Niehof, Britta & Hayo, Bernd, 2014. "Analysis of Monetary Policy Responses after Financial Market Crises in a Continuous Time New Keynesian Model," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100410, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Bernd Hayo & Britta Niehof, 2013. "Studying International Spillovers in a New Keynesian Continuous Time Framework with Financial Markets," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201342, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    4. Pu Chen & Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel & Willi Semmler, 2006. "Keynesian Macrodynamics and the Phillips Curve. An Estimated Baseline Macromodel for the U.S. Economy," Working Paper Series 147, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    5. Ekkehard Ernst & Peter Flaschel & Christian Proano & Willi Semmler, 2006. "Disequilibrium Macroeconomic Dynamics, Income Distribution and Wage-Price Phillips Curves," IMK Working Paper 04-2006, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    6. T. Asada & P. Chen, 2004. "Keynesian Dynamics and the wage price spiral. A baseline disequilibrium approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 262, Society for Computational Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter Flaschel & Göran Kauermann & Willi Semmler, 2007. "Testing Wage And Price Phillips Curves For The United States," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(4), pages 550-581, November.
    2. Carl Chiarella & Hing Hung & Peter Flaschel, 2010. "Keynesian Macrodynamics: Convergence, Roads to Instability and the Emergence of Complex Business Fluctuations," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 4(3), pages 236-262, November.
    3. V. Ragupathy & Stefano Zambelli & K. Vela Velupillai, 2013. "A Non-linear Model of the Trade Cycle: Mathematical Reflections on Hugh Hudson's Classic," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 115-125, June.
    4. Peter Flaschel, 2000. "Keynes-Marx and Keynes-Wicksell Models of Monetary Growth: A framework for future analysis," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 453-468.
    5. Roa Maria J & Vazquez Francisco Jose & Saura Dulce, 2008. "Unemployment and Economic Growth Cycles," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-21, May.
    6. Flaschel, Peter & Gong, Gang & Semmler, Willi, 2001. "A Keynesian macroeconometric framework for the analysis of monetary policy rules," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 101-136, September.
    7. Asada, Toichiro & Flaschel, Peter & Greiner, Alfred & Proaño, Christian R., 2011. "Sustainable capitalism: Full-employment flexicurity growth with real wage rigidities," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 248-264, March.
    8. Toichiro Asada & Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 2003. "Keynes-Metzler-Goodwin Model Building: The Closed Economy," Working Paper Series 124, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    9. Matthieu Charpe & Peter Flaschel & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Christian Proaño & Willi Semmler & Daniele Tavani, 2015. "Credit-driven investment, heterogeneous labor markets and macroeconomic dynamics," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 10(1), pages 163-181, April.
    10. Petre Caraiani & Emmanuel Haven, 2013. "The Role of Recurrence Plots in Characterizing the Output-Unemployment Relationship: An Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(2), pages 1-11, February.
    11. Chen, Pu & Hsiao, Chih-Ying, 2008. "What happens to Japan if China catches a cold?: A causal analysis of Chinese growth and Japanese growth," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 622-638, December.
    12. Murakami, Hiroki, 2018. "Existence and uniqueness of growth cycles in post Keynesian systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 293-304.
    13. Yanovski, Boyan & Tahri, Ibrahim & Lessmann, Kai, 2024. "Green transition and macroeconomic stabilization," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 586-601.
    14. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2019. "Coupling cycle mechanisms: Minsky debt cycles and the multiplier-accelerator," Working Papers PKWP1904, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    15. Carl Chiarella & Peter Flaschel, 1999. "Towards Applied Disequilibrium Growth Theory: III Basic Partial Feedback Structures and Stability Issues," Working Paper Series 95, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    16. Gregor W. Smith, 2006. "The spectre of deflation: a review of empirical evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1041-1072, November.
    17. repec:czx:journl:v:10:y:2003:i:19:id:124 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Peter Flaschel & Gang Gong & Willi Semmler, 1998. "A Keynesian Based Econometric Framework for Studying Monetary Policy Rules," SCEPA working paper series. 1998-04, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    19. Christopher Malikane & Willi Semmler, 2008. "Asset Prices, Output And Monetary Policy In A Small Open Economy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 666-686, November.
    20. Ogawa, Shogo, 2022. "Monetary growth with disequilibrium: A non-Walrasian baseline model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 512-528.
    21. Asada, Toichiro & Chiarella, Carl & Flaschel, Peter & Mouakil, Tarik & Proaño, Christian R., 2010. "Stabilizing an unstable economy: On the choice of proper policy measures," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-43.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DAS-DAD dynamics; wage and price Phillips curves; real interest effects; real wage effects; (in)stability; persistent business cycles; complex dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uts:wpaper:146. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Duncan Ford (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfutsau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.