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Testing Shifts in Financial Models with Conditional Heteroskedasticity: An Empirical Distribution Function Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Shinn-Juh Lin

    (Department of International Business, National Chengchi University)

  • Jian Yang

Abstract

This paper proposes a class of test procedures for a structural change with an unknown change point. In particular, we consider a general financial time series model with conditional heteroskedasticity. The test statistics are constructed via the empirical distribution approach and aim at detecting a change that may occur beyond the second moment. We derive the asymptotic null distributions of the test statistics and tabulate the critical values. Studies of the local power show that the test statistics have non-trivial local power. Finite sample performances of the proposed tests are studied via Monte Carlo methods. This test procedures are applied to test the change point in the S&P 500 daily index returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Shinn-Juh Lin & Jian Yang, 1999. "Testing Shifts in Financial Models with Conditional Heteroskedasticity: An Empirical Distribution Function Approach," Research Paper Series 30, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    • Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:30
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Smith, 2008. "Testing for structural breaks in GARCH models," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(10), pages 845-862.
    2. Sayar Karmakar & Arkaprava Roy, 2020. "Bayesian modelling of time-varying conditional heteroscedasticity," Papers 2009.06007, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    3. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871, November.
    4. Helmut Herwartz & Hans‐Eggert Reimers, 2002. "Empirical modelling of the DEM/USD and DEM/JPY foreign exchange rate: Structural shifts in GARCH‐models and their implications," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), pages 3-22, January.
    5. Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo, 2002. "Evaluating GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 417-435, October.
    6. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand K. Hassani, 2019. "Risk Measurement," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-02119256, HAL.
    7. Malmsten, Hans & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2004. "Stylized Facts of Financial Time Series and Three Popular Models of Volatility," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 563, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 03 Sep 2004.
    8. Yang, Jian, 2001. "Structural change tests under regression misspecifications," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 311-317, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    change point; empirical distribution function; sequential empirical process; weak convergence; two-parameter brownian bridge;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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